JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 1:02 AM EST690
FXUS63 KJKL 260602
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
102 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend continues through Wednesday, with highs forecast
to reach well into the 60s.
- A cold front is forecast to move through Wednesday night and
early Thursday with a chance for rain (30-70% probability),
followed by a modest downturn in temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2025
The hourly temperature and sky grids were adjusted slightly based
off of observed and modeled trends but changes are not sensibly
impactful. Going forecast appears to be on track.
UPDATE Issued at 801 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2025
Forecast remains largely on track other than some minor changes to
the T/Td to account for observed hourly trends this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 500 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2025
Late this afternoon, an upper level low was centered just north of
Hudson Bay with the axis of a 500 mb trough extending south and
southeast across Hudson and James Bay and Ontario and Quebec to
the eastern Great Lakes to off the southeast U.S. coast. An upper
level ridge was nearing the west coast of the Conus while west to
west northwest flow in general to the east from much of the
Rockies to the Appalachians and Southeast. Moving within this flow
was a shortwave extending from western MN and the eastern Dakotas
to KS with another just upstream entering the Dakotas and
extending into WY while yest another shortwave was moving around
the ridging across BC and the Pacific northwest and trekking to
the southeast. At the surface, a weak cold front/sfc trough was
nearing eastern KY and becoming diffuse with a ridge of high
pressure at the sfc extending from the western Great Lakes to near
the confluence of the OH and MS Rives with another sfc high
centered near the MS delta region. Further upstream, an area of
low pressure was centered over the Dakotas with a wavy front
extending back into the Rockies/Four Corners vicinity while an
associated warm front extended across eastern sections of NE to
KS. Locally, with clearing following the morning disturbance,
skies cleared and allowed temperatures to warm into the 60s
outside of the highest elevations above 3000 feet.
This evening and tonight, the diffuse surface trough/weak cold
front will work across the area this evening with sfc high
pressure building across the area overnight and settling across
the Appalachians near dawn on Wednesday. Afternoon mixed
dewpoints were as low as the upper 20s to mid 30s across eastern
KY, while dewpoints are a bit higher behind the boundary. This
leads to some uncertainty for low temperatures. However, with the
weak trough/boundary likely to not mix out valleys which should
become decouple near or just after sunset, some valleys,
especially east of I 75 and south of I 64 should drop off into
the upper 20s to low 30s. Meanwhile, coalfield ridges should
bottom out near or just above the 40 degree mark. Elsewhere, low
should range through the 30s.
For Wednesday, the first of a series of shortwaves should be
passing northwest of the OH Valley and into the Great Lakes while
another weak shortwave moves form the mid MS Valley into the Lower
OH Valley and the next system further upstream will enter the
upper MS Valley and mid MS Valley region with all of these systems
progressing east or northeast. The first shortwave should merge
with the second and reach the central to eastern Great Lakes to
Lower OH Valley region Wednesday, while the third enters the
western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley late. This shortwave trough
is expected to move across the Lower OH and enter the mid OH
Valley to Appalachians to end the period though the axis of
troughing at 500 mb should linger to the west. Meanwhile, as all
of this occurs, sfc low pressure that will have moved from the
Plains to upper MS Valley to western Great Lakes through Wednesday
morning to midday should pass north and northeast of eastern KY
from the southern to eastern Great Lakes. The systems warm front
should lift into eastern KY on Wednesday morning, and then across
the entire area on Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, the associated
cold front will approach the Lower OH Valley on Wednesday
afternoon and work across the Commonwealth from later Wednesday
evening through Wednesday night.
The cold front will have limited moisture to work with, especially
at the low to mid levels and forcing will be best across northern
sections of eastern KY and points north. A few showers ahead of
the cold front could arrive as early as Wednesday evening, but the
highest chances for showers in the 30 to 70 percent range from
south to north are anticipated Wednesday night to early on
Thursday. QPF with the system appears limited and has trended
lower over the last 24 hours and down a tad more in the last 24
hours. Total rainfall from Wednesday evening and into the early
part of the long term period should range from a couple of
hundredths south to as much as two tenths near the I 64 corridor
and north.
Following a ridge/valley temperature split due to nocturnal
inversion under high pressure tonight, temperatures will remain
mild ahead of the boundary on Wednesday. With south to southwest
winds having a downslope component, especially in the southeastern
part of the area, temperatures should once again overshoot NBM
deterministic values. Highs in the southeastern valleys as well as
areas near the TN border should top out near 70 with some low 70s
not out of the question. In addition, NBM deterministic dewpoints
have been too high the past couple of days and trended toward
afternoon mixed dewpoints for Wednesday afternoon toward the lower
percentiles (lower values within the guidance spread).
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2025
During the day Wednesday, a ridge over the west coast will continue
building, becoming more amplified, while a lee-side low pressure
will develop and propagate across the Upper Mississippi Valley. By
Wednesday night this upper-level low will have traversed across the
Lower Great Lakes, and portions of the Ohio Valley. An area of
showers from frontogenetic forcing, will move across Eastern
Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Showers will
slowly taper off from west to east, and likely linger east of I-75,
into the afternoon and early evening. During the afternoon and
evening, the trough axis associated with this upper-level low will
deepen, and move over eastern Kentucky after sunset. The associated
cold front will bring another round of showers to the area
overnight. Models are currently struggling to highlight shower
potential with post-frontal northwest flow across SE Kentucky. This
upslope flow can lead to showers lingering longer across SE Kentucky
after midnight Thursday into Friday. Highs Thursday could range from
low 50s in the north, to upper 50s in the south, with lows in the
lower 30s.
Friday, a secondary upper-level low, an Alberta Clipper, will move
across Southern Canada, the Greats Lakes, and portions of the Ohio
Valley. Luckily for Kentucky, shower activity looks to stay north of
the area at this time, however any shift further south in the models
could introduce light shower activity to the north. Winds out of the
southwest, will aid in temperatures climbing back into the low to
mid 50s, during the day Friday, with lows in the lower 40s.
Saturday, dry weather continues, with highs in the low to mid 50s
across the north, and upper 50s to low 60s across the south. Lows
Saturday night drop into the low to mid 20s. During the day
Saturday, an offshore low off the southern California coast will
move onshore and propagate east across The Rockies.
Sunday, dry weather continues, with cooler temperatures expected,
with highs in the low to mid 40s across the north, and mid to upper
40s across the south.
Monday and Tuesday, models are split on the path the Rocky Mountain
low will progress. One model solution has the low passing to the
south of Kentucky, while another has the low center passing to the
north, with showers across Kentucky possible Monday evening into
Tuesday. Highs Monday will remain average in the low to mid 50s,
while Tuesday, highs will climb into the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST WED FEB 26 2025
VFR conditions are again forecast through the TAF period. Ceilings
in the 10-15K ft AGL range are expected to develop late today and
early this evening, and ceilings in the 4-6K ft AGL range may
begin to move in from the northwest near the end of the period,
along with showers.
Winds will pick up out of the south to southwest during the day,
with gusts near 20 kt late in the day, before gusts subside in
the evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 26, 1:02 AM EST---------------
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