PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 11:17 PM CST641
FXUS63 KPAH 260517
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1117 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will generally remain at or above normal levels
through Saturday. Sunday may see temperatures dip a bit below
normal.
- A weak cold front will bring an area of rain to the Quad State
Wednesday afternoon and night. A stray thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out over the Evansville Tri State in the late afternoon.
One to two tenths of an inch of rainfall will be possible
mainly over west Kentucky, with under a tenth of an inch
expected elsewhere.
- Unsettled weather is a possibility Monday and Tuesday of next
week. The details are murky, but some more substantial
rainfall is possible. Temperatures will remain mild.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Temperatures have overachieved today with the southern half of
the area reaching the mid to upper 60s and even 70 in a few
locales. In the north, that little surface trough has had a bit
more impact, holding temperatures in the upper 50s along I-64.
Dewpoints have also mixed more than expected, especially in the
south, leading to relative humidity dipping into the 20-30%
range in may locations.
Surface high pressure will make a brief appearance across the
Quad State this evening, leading to light or calm winds.
However, it will push east by morning allowing southwest winds
to increase and become gusty by Wednesday afternoon. This will
lead to some modest increase in moisture, but given how well he
have mixed the last few days, confidence in the surface
dewpoint forecast is not great.
Our next storm system will attempt to create some showers or
areas of light rain Wednesday afternoon, but coverage is in
doubt. There will be better coverage over west Kentucky in the
evening, where a tenth to a quarter inch of rainfall will be
possible. Elsewhere, rainfall will be light and spotty.
In deference to our northeastern neighbors we did throw in a
slight chance of thunder across the Evansville Tri State area in
the late afternoon. It is likely that there will not be enough
moisture for anything to develop there, but a mention shouldn't
hurt anything. If a storm were to develop it would produce a
brief heavy downpour and sporadic lightning.
Another disturbance will sweep through the area Thursday
afternoon, and could produce a few light showers over the
Evansville Tri State. However, the NBM remains dry in our area,
with a better shot of precipitation northeast of the Quad
State. The NBM is even struggling to produce much in the way of
cloud cover with the system.
Northwest winds Thursday will be modestly gusty, but southwest
winds will make a quick return on Friday ahead of another cold
front. Gusts up to 30 mph cannot be ruled out on Friday. The
cold front is expected to make a dry passage Friday night, with
a significant surge of surface high pressure behind it. This
will lead to cooler temperatures for the weekend with highs in
the 50s Saturday and 40s Sunday. Lows Saturday night may drop
below freezing. Below normal temperatures are expected Saturday
night and Sunday.
The forecast for next week is quite murky. In general, we should
see increasing heights aloft, if not a ridge developing over the
Quad State. The ridge placement will impact the potential for
disturbances to bring rainfall to the area. At this time, the
12Z GFS seems to be a dry outlier, with the CMC and ECMWF
wetter, especially next Tuesday into Wednesday. For now the NBM
has chance PoPs from Sunday night through next Tuesday, as it
awaits more clarity from the available guidance. Temperatures
will climbing back above normal Monday and even into the 60s
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
VFR conditions through the end of the period. Some mid and high
clouds will be moving in closer to day break. Some showers are
then possible at KPAH and KOWB around 00Z which could reduce
visibilities at times. Winds will be out of the south overnight
and then out of the west tomorrow. Winds will pick up tomorrow
with gusts around 20kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 11:17 PM CST---------------
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