PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 12:32 AM EST515
FXUS61 KPBZ 250532
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1232 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will move through the region today with a passing
disturbance. Temperatures will remain above normal through most
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures expected.
- Light rain moves in this morning.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
No major changes to the overnight period.
A shortwave trough will quickly move through the region this
morning. Light rain will overspread the area ahead of the upper
level wave. The deepest moisture will be ahead of the wave so
the light rain should exit quickly this afternoon.
Rainfall amounts should be light. Latest probabilities for > 0.1
inch of rain are highest north of Pittsburgh and even those are
coming in at around 50% to 60%.
By late this afternoon the wave will be east of the area and the
light rain will be well into eastern PA.
Temperatures today will again be above seasonal averages.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry most of Wednesday
- Rain returns Wednesday night and continues through Thursday
- Above normal temperature continues through this time period
------------------------------------------------------------------
A period of cold air advection and northwest flow should keep
stratocu over the region for most of tonight.
Brief upper level height rises and surface high pressure will
allow for a short decrease in cloud cover Wednesday morning.
Warm air advection ahead of the next system will keep
temperatures above normal on Wednesday.
The first area of light rain will cross the region, mainly north
of Pittsburgh, Wednesday evening along a crossing warm front.
A surface low will slowly drag a cold front through the area
late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Somewhat more
substantial rain is anticipated Wednesday night and Thursday,
but overall amounts should stay relatively light. Probs for >
0.20 inches of rain generally range from 30 to 50% with the
highest of these near over the I-80 corridor.
Highs Thursday will likely be reached early in the day as cold
air advection behind the front should induce falling
temperatures Thursday afternoon. With the cold air advection and
the passing of a weak upper level trough, scattered snow showers
may develop late Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Trends starting to favor below average temperature Friday into
the weekend with a passing trough
-------------------------------------------------------------------
An active weather, of passing shortwaves, will keep
precipitation chances elevated for a number of days in the long
term period.
With ensemble models favoring colder temperature profiles after
midnight Friday, any remaining precipitation activity will
likely be snow due to lake enhancement.
The grand ensemble of models are in agreement that a trough
axis will reside over the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes
region on Saturday and eject into the Northeast on Sunday.
However, there is still some spread (uncertainty) on the overall
depth of the trough axis and will likely reflect temperatures.
Any precipitation advancing within the trough axis will likely
switch to snow north of Pittsburgh Saturday into Sunday. Global
ensemble portray probabilities of measurable snow (0.1") in the
vicinity of I-80 is about 45%; 10-20% for 1 inch of snow.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid clouds will continue to stream over the area ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. Rain and MVFR (IFR at DUJ)
restrictions are expected by morning as rain overspreads the
region with the trough. The rain should end by mid to late
morning, though MVFR cigs should continue through much of the
afternoon as the trough axis crosses the Upper Ohio Valley
region. Improvement to VFR is likely from south to north during
the afternoon, though areas north of PIT will likely stay MVFR
with more favorable low level moisture in place.
Additional showers are possible from mid to late afternoon as a
weak surface trough crosses the region. Deterioration back to
MVFR, and possibly IFR, is expected Tuesday night as low level
moisture increases.
Outlook...
MVFR to IFR cigs are likely Wednesday morning with low level
moisture in place. A crossing cold front will return rain and
restriction potential late Wednesday into Thursday. A
reinforcing front will maintain restrictions and rain/snow
across the area through Thursday night. Another fast moving
cold front will return rain/snow and restriction potential to
the region Saturday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 12:32 AM EST---------------
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