LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 3:21 AM EST865
FXUS63 KLMK 250821
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
321 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A sprinkle or stray rain shower is possible early this morning
across portions of southeast IN and the KY Bluegrass.
* Milder weather through the middle of the week, with the next
chance for rain Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
Currently, a shortwave is diving southeast over Illinois and
Indiana. This is producing a surface trough and an area of radar
reflectivity over central and southern Indiana. Model soundings show
the DGZ is saturated, but below that, it's very dry, limiting any
precipitation from reaching the ground.
Over the next several hours, this line will continue to the
southeast. This could result in a sprinkle or light shower, mainly
over southeast Indiana or the Bluegrass of Kentucky. Behind this
line, skies are expected to become mostly sunny, and with surface
ridge extending north, east of the region, southwest winds will
remain over the Lower Ohio Valley. The warm air advection with
sunshine is expected to help lift temperatures into the 60s across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky.
Tonight, an approaching surface ridge extending north through the
Tennessee Valley will cause winds throughout the CWA to veer towards
the northwest before quickly backing towards the south ahead of an
approaching cold front after midnight. Skies are expected to begin
the night mostly clear, but as heading into Wednesday morning, high
level clouds will become more common ahead of the approaching
system. Lows are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
Wednesday through Thursday Night...
Troughing originating from southern Canada will swing through the
Midwest and Ohio Valley on Wednesday - Thursday. A surface low
pressure system will move through the southern Great Lakes, sending
a cold front south through the Ohio Valley. A southern stream jet
will place the region under the left exit region ahead of the
approaching system. This upper jet, along with a 45-50kt LLJ, will
enhance southwesterly flow into the region and increase moisture.
Wednesday will remain dry with warmer temperatures in the 60s.
Wednesday evening and into the overnight period, the cold front will
move through the region and a thin band of showers are expected
along the front. With increased moisture content and ample lift,
moderate to heavy showers are possible for a short period of time.
Low PoPs will persist through Thursday as the upper trough is
swinging through. Expecting to see QPF between 0.2-0.5. Temperatures
will remain mild in the low 50s for highs.
Friday through Early Next Week...
Following a similar pattern, another trough originating from southern
Canada will swing through the region, bringing another low pressure
system through the southern Great Lakes. Ahead of this system on
Friday, strong WAA into the region will bring moisture and warmer
temperatures. A 50-60kt LLJ will lead to breezy winds Friday. The
cold front will move in Friday night through Saturday morning. Low
PoPs will be over the eastern portion of the region as the front
moves through. Behind the front, CAA will bring short-lived cooler
temperatures.
Early next week, an upper low will develop over the Rockies and push
east. At the same time, ridging over the western CONUS will
strengthen and push east, breaking down the upper low. Temperatures
over the region will warm early next week through mid week. Remnants
of the upper low will bring PoPs to the region by mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
Currently, there are some mid and high level clouds moving
through the region. A LLJ is also expected to cause some LLWS at
area TAF sites over the next several hours. There remains a small
chance of a passing shower from HNB, SDF and LEX but overall
confidence is low. Skies are expected to improve during the day as
winds veer from the southwest towards the west.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 25, 3:21 AM EST---------------
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