JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 1:40 PM EST151
FXUS63 KJKL 241840 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
140 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend continues through mid-week, with temperatures
forecast to top 60 degrees at nearly all locations on Wednesday.
- A cold front is forecast to move through Wednesday night and
early Thursday with our next good shot at rain (50-80%
probability), followed by a modest downturn in temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EST MON FEB 24 2025
Minor updates were made to hourly grids based on recent observations
and trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. Temperatures
will continue the moderating trend today, with temperatures
climbing to around 5 degrees above normal on average.
UPDATE Issued at 736 AM EST MON FEB 24 2025
Forecast is on track with a few mid-high clouds starting to arrive
from the northwest. No changes were necessary.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 AM EST MON FEB 24 2025
Mild temperatures will prevail during the short term period, as
southwest breezes emanate from a surface ridge to our southeast. A
shortwave trough passing to our north will bring an increase in
clouds tonight and early Tuesday. A few showers can't be ruled
out, mainly north of the Mountain Parkway. This is questionable,
though, as low level gulf moisture will remain cut off. Mid-upper
levels will moisten in response to the trough, and virga is
expected. Should the virga be able to moisten the lower levels
enough before the trough departs, it could briefly result in
showers.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 446 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
A progressive weather pattern is forecast to continue over Eastern
Kentucky for the duration of the long term forecast period. While
the disturbances within this pattern are likely to yield temperature
fluctuations, their generally weak and quick-moving nature will
greatly reduce the likelihood of hazardous weather over the next
seven days. The strongest of these systems approaches the forecast
area on Wednesday night, right on the heels of the warmest day in
the period.
On Tuesday night, shortwave upper level ridging and an associated
surface high pressure system will build into the Commonwealth,
leading to height rises and subsidence. The resultant clear skies
will allow ridge-valley temperature splits to emerge before a shift
to southerly low-level flow fosters warm air-advection and modest
amounts of moisture return during the daytime hours on Wednesday.
Forecast MinTs range from the low/mid 30s in valleys to near 40 on
ridgetops, but temperatures quickly recover to the 60s area-wide on
Wednesday evening as mid level flow backs towards the southwest
ahead of a digging trough. This shift towards SW flow throughout the
column will allow a tongue of seasonably potent moisture to advect
into Kentucky immediately ahead of an approaching cold front.
Various pieces of deterministic forecast guidance resolve up to 1
inch of precipitable water within this narrow corridor; this is
equivalent to approximately 200% of climatological norms for late
February. This enhanced moisture content will combine with dynamic
lift from an favorably-positioned 300mb jet streak to produce
scattered showers. With little to no instability and a positively-
tilted parent trough, thunderstorm potential looks minimal. A few
showers immediately ahead of the frontal lift maxima may produce
bursts of locally heavier rain, but the showers are poised to weaken
as they move from NW to SE across the area on Thursday morning.
Probabilistic LREF guidance suggests that QPF from this event is
unlikely to exceed 0.5 inches, with the most likely range being
between 0.1 and 0.3 inches.
After the front passes on Thursday, upsloping WNW flow may cause
additional light precipitation in our southeastern counties. Cold
air advection and persistent cloud cover will likely limit the
amount of diurnal warming, and temperatures will likely stay in the
40s that afternoon. A second, weaker disturbance moves through the
greater Ohio River Valley on Thursday evening and provides a
reinforcing shot of colder air. Lows will approach freezing
overnight into Friday morning, and any lingering orographically-
forced precipitation may briefly mix with or change over to snow as
a result. Little to no accumulations are expected with this
secondary disturbance, and heights begin to rise again by midday on
Friday. This will foster a clearing trend in the skies and warming
afternoon temperatures before yet another disturbance approaches
from the NW this weekend. Model spread increases heading into the
weekend, so confidence in sensible weather specifics is lower in
that time frame. For now, the weekend looks mostly dry, aside from
some slight upslope precipitation chances on Saturday night.
Saturday is likely to be warmer than both Friday and Sunday, but the
exact timing of the weekend disturbance/frontal passage remains
unclear. Regardless, confidence is high that there will be no
significant weather impacts through the end of the official long
term forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST MON FEB 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period even as
a passing disturbance and weak front bring an increase in mid
level clouds between about 06Z and 15Z. Scattered to broken mid
level clouds in addition to high clouds are expected during that
time. There remains a small chance for MVFR ceilings near and
north of I-64 within or just after isolated to scattered showers
late in the period. Winds will generally be from the south to
southwest at 5 to 10KT or less through 12Z, and then become more
westerly to end the period also at 5 to 10KT or less.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 24, 1:40 PM EST---------------
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