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554 FXUS64 KMOB 040934AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday)Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024We will continue to see a continuation of a series of impulses/shortwavedisturbances moving in a west-northwest flow aloft to aid in the trigger for mainly diurnal convection over the next several days. A few showers and storms, the remnants of one of thesedisturbances, are moving east across the forecast area during thepredawn hours this morning. This activity could last into themorning daytime hours on Tuesday, especially for our eastern and southern counties. Another convective system (associated with thenext shortwave feature) has developed over Oklahoma early this morning, and will be the next system to drop east-southeast towardour area today and this evening. CAMs continue to show this MCS CS pushing across the ArkLaTex region this morning, and moving fairly quickly across Louisiana southern Mississippi in the afternoon, with remnants moving into southwest Alabama thisevening before dissipating over the area by around midnight orjust thereafter during the predawn hours Wednesday. It stillappears that deep layer shear will be a bit stronger with this system today, which could bolster a better threat for strong to severe storms this afternoon SPC has a SLIGHT severe threat justto the west of our forecast area for today and tonight, with a MARGINAL severe threat over our western area (west of I-65), so a strong to severe storm or two could be possible this afternoon or evening. Yet another impulse will bring scattered showers and storms to the area again on Wednesday. Highs today will generallybe in the upper 80s across most of the area (low to mid 80s at thecoast) and then slightly warmer (in the upper 80s to lower 90sinland and mid to upper 80s coastal) on Wednesday. Lows tonightare expected to be in the upper 60s inland and low to mid 70scloser to and along the coast. DS/12 &&.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Thursday night)Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024Similar pattern continues through the short term period, butmodels do indicate the potential for a stronger shortwave aloft tomove across our area and Thursday morning. This will result in aless diurnal patter, with chances for showers and storms remaininghigher Wednesday night, and continuing into Thursday. SPC just hasgeneral thunderstorms forecast for our entire area Wednesdaynight, but with the strength of the shortwave energy aloft therecould again be a few strong to briefly severe storms (especiallyWednesday evening/overnight) and again Thursday afternoon wheninstabilities are greatest. We will continue to monitor for this potential. Rain chances will be lower on Thursday night, andmainly confined to coastal locations. Lows both Wednesday andThursday nights will range from lower 70s inland to middle 70s down along the coast. Highs on Thursday are expected to be mainlyin the mid to upper 80s, but a few lower 90s possible over inlandareas. DS/12 &&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024Upper pattern changes during the early part of the long termperiod, with an upper low developing over the Great Lakes regionand a large upper trough developing over the eastern third of theCONUS. This pattern will allow a weak cold front to drop southacross the area on Friday, with somewhat drier air behind thefront. With the lower dewpoints and reduced deep layer moisture,rain chances will generally be lower in the long term even with asomewhat active northwesterly upper level flow persisting. Rainchances will mainly be diurnal in nature, with a 20 to 30 percentchance of rain each day. Daytime highs will continue to be in theupper 80s and lower 90s through the period. With the lowerdewpoints, nighttime lows will be a little cooler Friday andSaturday nights, with mid to upper 60s over most inland locationsand lower 70s along the coast. Sunday night min temps will generallybe in the lower 70s inland and middle 70s for coastal locations. DS/12&&.MARINE...Issued at 434 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024No significant marine impacts are expected throughout the week. Light onshore flow prevails through midweek and then shifts westerly late in the week. /22 MM/25&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 86 73 88 73 88 72 93 69 / 50 20 30 30 50 20 20 10 Pensacola 86 76 87 75 87 75 92 71 / 50 20 30 40 50 20 30 10 Destin 86 76 86 76 87 76 90 72 / 40 20 30 30 50 20 30 20 Evergreen 89 68 91 70 88 70 91 63 / 50 20 40 40 70 20 20 0 Waynesboro 88 69 92 70 88 70 91 65 / 50 30 30 50 40 20 20 0 Camden 88 69 91 69 87 70 89 63 / 50 30 30 50 50 20 20 0 Crestview 89 69 90 70 90 70 94 65 / 50 20 30 30 70 20 30 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
