MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 5:50 PM CST ...New AVIATION...529
FXUS64 KMOB 182350
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
550 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
VFR ceilings this evening will deteriorate to IFR from 08z to 12z
as a large area of light to moderate rain spreads from west to
east, also leading to MVFR visibilities. The rain will taper off
from west to east Wednesday morning, bringing a return to VFR
visibilities by late morning. However, IFR ceilings will persist
through much of the day, especially closer to the coast. Easterly
winds will steadily become northerly during the morning as a
surface low pressure area moves from west to east across the
northern Gulf. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 358 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
A soggy 24 hours before our next polar plunge as a quick
overrunning event will push through tonight. Looking aloft, a
subtle shortwave will progress through rather broad southwesterly
flow aloft. A subtle warm front will lift north across the marine
waters tonight likely getting stuck just offshore. A surface low
will track across the northern Gulf tonight before colder
northwesterly winds kick in Wednesday night. Overspreading precip
will likely increase this evening into the overnight hours as the
upper trough winds through. We are already seeing precip
blossoming over the Mississippi delta area. Some heavier precip
may be possible across the I-10 corridor tonight with stronger low
level convergence associated with the warm front. Rainfall totals
will likely range from a half an inch inland to maybe 1 to 2
inches along the immediate coastline. Localized 3 inches cannot be
ruled out. While this rainfall is no where close to supporting
any flood issues, we cannot rule out some minor nuisance flooding
in the more urban areas. Temperatures will be cool with highs
likely struggling to get out of the low to mid 50s before quickly
cooling back off Wednesday night into the mid 20s. With elevated
northerly winds behind the low and cold temperatures, cold weather
products will likely be needed across the area. At the minimum a
cold weather advisory for Wednesday night but a extreme cold
warning may also be needed for parts of the area. BB-8
SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Winter returns in a big way for Thursday and Thursday night as
arctic high pressure builds into the region. Strong low level cold
air advection will continue through the day on Thursday, which
means that highs will not make it out of the 40s, perhaps staying
in the upper 30s over far inland areas. High temperatures this
cold is fairly unusual for late February. To put it in
perspective, for February 20th, Mobile has only had seven days
with highs in the 40s, with the record low high temperature of 47
set back in 1940. Pensacola has had only 6 days of highs in the
40s, with a record low high of 44 set in 1921. The current
forecast highs for Thursday are 46 in Mobile and 49 in Pensacola,
so we could be near record low high temperatures on Thursday for
some locations. In addition, continued gusty north winds will keep
wind chills in the 20s and 30s for the majority of the day as
well.
And, just when you thought that the groundhog was lying to you,
Thursday night and early Friday morning look to be bitterly cold.
The question is just how cold? The center of the arctic high will
still be centered Missouri by daybreak Friday, meaning that the
pressure gradient will remain somewhat tight over our local area
as we will be on the southern edge of the ridging. This will
likely keep winds elevated and the atmosphere somewhat mixed.
Therefore, as did the previous shift, we did not go quite as cold
as what the GFS/ECMWF MOS data suggests and leaned more toward the
NBM guidance (but warmed even that up a degree or two over the
northern tier of counties). However, even with the slight bump up,
this still results in lows ranging from the upper teens/lower 20s
across the northern half of the area to the mid to upper 20s
along the coast (perhaps a few lower 30s for the barrier islands).
The current forecast low at Mobile Friday morning is still 24
degrees, which would break the old record of 28 degrees. The
record is colder at Pensacola is (21) and our current forecast is
for 28 degrees. It's also worth noting that Friday morning wind
chills will once again drop into the teens for all locations.
Friday will only see a small moderation in temperatures with highs
still about 15 degrees below normal (with highs in the upper 40s
to lower 50s). Increasing mid and high level clouds by Friday
night will likely result in lows not getting as cold as they
otherwise would with light winds and such low dewpoints (low to
mid 20s), but we should still see lows in the upper 20s well
inland with mid to upper 30s along the coast.
The arctic high will begin to moderate and shift well east of the
area over the weekend and into the early part of next week.
Saturday highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, warming a
little each day and expected to be in the lower 70s for most
locations by Tuesday. The upper level flow will become more active
again over the weekend, with a series of shortwaves moving
through in WNW-NW flow aloft. The timing of the waves and the
degree of any moisture return continues to be a little uncertain
this far out, but we still think that we will see at least a small
chance for rain Saturday night into Sunday. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Southeasterly winds will slowly increase Tonight into Wednesday
morning as a surface low moves east across the northern Gulf.
Strong offshore flow redevelops Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night as the low moves east of the area and arctic high pressure
builds in from the north. Winds will gradually subside Thursday
night through Friday night. A Small craft advisory is in effect
for all marine areas. BB-8
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 46 54 26 46 24 51 34 58 / 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 49 58 31 46 28 51 38 59 / 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 51 59 34 49 30 51 40 60 / 90 100 10 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 43 55 26 43 21 51 28 58 / 90 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 40 48 21 41 20 48 27 54 / 90 60 0 0 0 0 0 10
Camden 41 52 24 40 20 47 26 55 / 80 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 45 57 30 46 24 52 30 60 / 90 100 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Friday for
GMZ650-670.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Friday for
GMZ655-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 5:50 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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