JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 12:00 PM EST558
FXUS63 KJKL 211700
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1200 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much quieter weather is expected for the bulk of the next 7
days.
- Wind chills as low as 5 below to 10 above early this morning.
- High temperatures return to near, to above, normal during the
weekend and first half of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
Scattered flurries linger northeast of US-421 at midday, courtesy
a stubborn low stratus deck stuck in a north northwesterly upslope
flow. Though the deck may erode along the southern edge the next
few hours, the mention of flurries in the forecast have been
lingered deep into the afternoon northeast of KY-15, where the
deck is likely to persist for most if not all of the afternoon.
Given the lack of sunshine, have also lowered this afternoon's
high temperatures across the north with widespread highs of 25 to
30 northeast of US-421. Generally anticipate highs around 30
further south where there is more sunshine, though cannot rule
out a few places such as Middlesboro eclipsing the freezing mark.
UPDATE Issued at 900 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
Lingering shallow moisture coinciding with the passage of a weak
upper level disturbance is yielding scattered very light flurries
this morning across for locations northeast of US-421. No
accumulation is expected. South of the flurries and the
associated cloud bank, temperatures bottomed out near or below
zero across across much of the Cumberland River Basin. The coldest
locations was at the Pulaski County mesonet where temperatures
dropped to -5F. While temperatures are warming area-wide this
morning, wind chills are still flirting with 0F at some locations
in the Cumberland Basin so the Cold Weather Advisory will continue
through 10 AM EST. Clouds and flurries will likely remain
prevalent through midday over the northeastern 2/3rds of the
forecast area before gradually diminishing during the afternoon
and evening.
UPDATE Issued at 618 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
Only slight update to the forecast to include flurries across the
area through later this afternoon; otherwise forecast grids have
been largely on track through this early Friday morning. Morning
text and radio products have been updated to reflect the new
forecast. Grids have been saved and sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows chilly high pressure pushing deeper into
eastern Kentucky this morning while cyclonic low level flow
continues through the northeast parts of the state. This is where
the low clouds (and even some flurries) are still holding on -
supported by a passing wave aloft. Elsewhere, clear skies are
allowing for radiation cooling - dropping temperatures through the
single digits and in a spot or two to below zero. The coldest
locations are under a cold weather advisory through 10 am
- including an impact based one for the flood ravaged areas.
Specifically, readings currently vary from negative two at the
Pulaski mesonet site to near 15 degrees above for northeastern
locations that have kept their clouds through the night.
Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are generally
in the low single digits.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict a stream of mid level energy departing to the east
this morning in the wake of strong troughing exiting off the
New England Coast this morning. The overall 5h pattern above
Kentucky flattens out into tonight, though a dampening trough will
be working toward the area from the Southern Plains within fairly
fast, zonal mid-level flow. This quick wave does come through the
Tennessee Valley on Saturday bringing some slight height falls
for our area, but the core of any energy stays south of the now
moisture limited JKL CWA. The rather small model spread aloft
supported using the NBM the starting point for the forecast grids,
though with some adjustments to temperatures this morning and
tonight to account for terrain distinctions in a regime of good
radiational cooling.
Sensible weather features a very cold start to the day - even in
places that retained their clouds through the bulk of the night.
Look for plenty of sunshine by late morning for the entire area as
the low clouds clear and shift out to the east. This will make for
a warmer afternoon with many locations climbing above freezing for
the first time in several days. Despite the relative warmth and
high pressure passing off to the east, tonight will see another
cold night with more of a ridge to valley temperature split
developing on account of fairly good radiational cooling
conditions and just a smattering of mid level moisture around -
mainly late. Partly sunny skies will not slow down the temperature
rise through the day, Saturday. Look for readings peaking in the
mid 40s for much of the area - dealing a death blow to most of the
remaining snow - though upper 30s may be all locations north of
I-64 can manage.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adjusting the temperatures for terrain distinctions early this
morning and tonight. Did not deviate too far from the near zero
PoPs from the NBM as some small positive values just start to
enter the picture toward the end of the period.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 516 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
The long term forecast period is generally characterized by a much
quieter weather pattern than what we have seen in Eastern Kentucky
as of late. Forecast guidance generally resolves mid-level height
rises, surface high pressure, and a warming trend through much of
the next week. However, two distinct disturbances will interrupt
these relatively quieter conditions. The first system, an Alberta
Clipper, is expected to quickly pass to the NE of the area on
Tuesday. The second one approaches the region towards the end of the
forecast period on Thursday, with better-defined upper-level support
and more moisture to work with. Thus, this second system appears
more likely to produce widespread precipitation than the first. The
progressive nature of both systems will reduce the risk of
hydrological impacts, but interests are encouraged to remain tuned
to forecast updates as the sensible weather specifics for the late
week system are fine-tuned.
The aforementioned surface high pressure will keep things dry at the
start of the period, and conditions are favorable for ridge-valley
temperature splits on both Saturday and Sunday nights. As the high
pressure system shifts into the Southeastern states and heights rise
aloft, temperatures will progressively warm. Saturday night will be
the coldest night in the period, with clear skies and efficient
radiational cooling yielding valley lows in the teens and ridgetop
lows in the twenties. Afternoon highs on Sunday will reach the 40s
under sunny skies area-wide, before the valleys (ridges) cool back
down into the 20s (low 30s) overnight. On Monday, subtly stronger SW
surface flow on the backside of the high will allow highs to jump up
into the 50s. By Monday night, moisture advection aloft is expected
to increase cloud coverage. These clouds will insulate temperatures,
which will be well above freezing out ahead of Tuesday's clipper
system.
With lows near 40 and highs in the mid/upper 50s, any precipitation
that falls on Tuesday is likely to do so as rain. Models resolve the
best atmospheric moisture across NE portions of the forecast area,
and PoPs are higher there as a result. The limited moisture
available on Tuesday will be of modified Pacific origins, as the
southeastern high will block access to the better Gulf moisture
until later in the week. The lack of deep saturation will limit the
QPF for Tuesday's quick-moving system, but the upper level pattern
will amplify in its wake. Ridging temporarily builds back in on
Wednesday, and the mean flow in the column turns southwesterly as
upper level troughing digs into the Midwest. The resultant WAA and
moisture return will allow temperatures to recover from AM lows in
30s to highs in the 60s on Wednesday. On Thursday, the troughing
aloft will propagate eastward into the Ohio River Valley, leading to
increasing cloud cover and area-wide rain chances. It is too soon to
provide specifics regarding rain totals, but confidence is fairly
high that this system will involve the passage of a well-defined
cold front. Behind this boundary, temperatures could drop to near or
below freezing, and a changeover to snow cannot be ruled out on
Thursday night accordingly. After that, guidance points towards a
prolonged period of NW flow and colder weather. The CPC's 8-14
Day temperature outlook gives credence to this potential pattern
flip; it highlights Eastern Kentucky as a location that may
experience below-normal temperatures during the first few days of
March.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
Terminals are a combination of MVFR and VFR with this TAF
issuance. Sites KSYM, KSJS and KJKL are currently MVFR and will
remain MVFR through a good portion of the TAF period as a post-
frontal stratus deck moves to the south. Terminals KLOZ and KSYM
are VFR and may see a reduction to brief MVFR but largely stay
VFR. An area of flurries is accompanying the area of lowered CIGS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 21, 12:00 PM EST---------------
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