IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 2:50 PM EST935
FXUS63 KIND 191950
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow this evening into tonight with accumulations around 1
inch, with isolated higher amounts, along with wind chills as
low as -10
- Temperatures will remain brutally cold through Thursday
before moderating this weekend and early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 246 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
Rest of the Afternoon and Tonight...
GOES-16 satellite and obs continue to show the stratocu deck hold
strong. This along with the north winds has kept temperatures below
20 degrees. Meanwhile, H20 vapor imagery was indicating an upper low
moving into Minnesota. This feature will drop southeast into
southeastern Iowa late today and across central Indiana late
tonight. Meanwhile, a 140-150 knot jet streak will round the base of
the low across Tennessee. Diffluent flow and general synoptic lift
along with a moist column and snow ratios 16:1 to 20:1 should result
in some minor snow accumulation. Ensemble probabilities hint at snow
totals around a half an inch for central Indiana, but given the set-
up, length of snowfall and high snow ratios, this is likely slightly
under the final snow total result as the sun rises tomorrow morning.
Current expectation is for most of the eastern half of Indiana to
receive between 0.5 to 1.0 inches overnight. There could be pockets
of 1-2" of snow over N/NE portions of central Indiana due to the
position of the 700-500mb jet streaks. This area looks to have
slightly higher vertical shear and lift through the isothermal
layer, of which could lead to brief banding and isolated higher
amounts. Locations included in this potential higher end amounts
would be Anderson, Muncie, New Castle and Richmond.
Despite stratocu deck likely lingering through at least most of the
night, underneath an inversion, the northwest winds will stay up
near 10 knots and provide cold advection and overnight lows in the
single digits and sub zero wind chills.
Thursday...
Hi-Res soundings, layered RH progs and subsidence from an upstream
Arctic high suggest there will be some sunshine around on Thursday.
This should allow temperatures to potentially reach 20 degrees
despite gusty northwest winds.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 246 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
The long term will showcase a long awaited warm-up for central
Indiana as we transition into a modified NW flow pattern. The
broader upper trough will push to the east Thursday night through
Saturday, as westerly flow downstream of the ridge induces WAA and
height rises over the Ohio Valley. This WAA will help build low
level high pressure, keeping conditions dry through the weekend.
Temperature modification will take time given the magnitude of
precedent cold air, but central Indiana will gradually push towards
seasonal surface temperatures by Sunday with highs near 40 and lows
in the upper 20s.
A continued warm-up is possible early next week, but will greatly
depend on the position of the ridge axis over the intermountain west.
Ensemble members are slightly varied on its position as of the 12Z
suite; the further east the ridge axis sets up, the warmer
temperatures will be early next week. Regardless of the ridge axis
position, the general NW flow pattern is expected to continue
through much of next week. The current ensemble agreement is on a
more westerly positioned LLJ, leading to a lack of moisture
advection into the region. In return, this likely positions central
Indiana in a stretch of mostly dry wave passages next week. Within
these patterns, typically temperatures remain above normal, but with
very windy afternoons as the PBL expands and mixes down the LLJ.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 941 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
Impacts:
- Mostly MVFR ceilings through 11z or so Thursday then conditions
will improve to VFR
- Snow will move in after 23z with IFR visibility possible at
times
Discussion:
IFR flying conditions are possible starting early evening as
snow moves in. Otherwise, the MVFR ceilings will hang around today
and improve Thursday as Arctic high pressure starts building in from
the Plains.
Winds will be north and northwest less than 10 knots.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MK/Updike
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...MK
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 19, 2:50 PM EST---------------
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