CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 10:08 PM EST099
FXUS61 KCLE 190308
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1008 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through tonight before
an upper low crosses the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure will build east over the area Thursday night into
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge of high pressure over the region is resulting in light
to calm winds. Lowered winds just slightly through the overnight
with generally 5 mph or less expected. This may reduce the
influence of the wind chill at times. Several sites in North
Central and Northwest Ohio are at or near the overnight low
temperature and may start to rise as cirrus thickens overnight.
Eastern areas are still likely too cool a couple more degrees.
Previous discussion...
High pressure will continue to build over the region through
tonight, although lingering moisture may result in continued
flurries/light snow showers through the remainder of the
afternoon and possibly into early this evening. Upper ridging
may allow clouds to scatter out slightly, but there will most
likely be quite a bit of cirrus south of the lakeshore as a
shortwave passes to the south of the local area overnight.
Expect overnight lows to fall into the single digits and
possibly approach zero degrees in portions of NW PA and maybe
far NE OH tonight. With that being said, lighter winds and lack
of radiational cooling due to cloud cover will result in
slightly warmer apparent temperatures than last night; wind
chills to zero to 5 degrees below zero are expected areawide
tonight into early Wednesday with locally colder wind chills to
5 to 10 degrees below zero expected across portions of far NE OH
and especially NW PA. The coldest wind chills of 10 degrees
below zero (and possibly slightly colder) are expected across
the higher terrain of interior NW PA.
Dry weather will continue through most of Wednesday before an upper
low begins to approach from the northwest Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night. This will result in an uptick in cloud cover late
Wednesday morning and afternoon and increasing chances of snow
showers Wednesday night. Moisture will be marginal Wednesday night
so have capped PoPs at around 50 percent. Precipitation rates will
be relatively light and snow amounts through daybreak Thursday
morning will generally be half an inch or less.
Wednesday's highs will be in the teens with overnight lows in the
single digits to low teens. Wind chills will be in the single digits
for most of the area Wednesday and possibly approach zero degrees
late Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough will become centered over the Great Lakes region
on Thursday, as the main surface low pressure system pushes off
the East Coast. The combination of the low to the southeast and
the trough aloft will draw in colder air and have enough lift to
generate widespread snow that will then transition into more of
a traditional lake effect snow setup. Have a mix of chance to
categorical PoPs to account for the snow with the highest in the
primary snow belt. The back side of the trough and high pressure
will be quick to build in on Friday with drying conditions
occurring. Have a largely dry forecast for Friday. Temperatures
will be well on the colder side of normal with highs in the 20s
and lows in the teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region on Saturday and will
continue to promote a dry forecast with below normal
temperatures. This surface high will push to the east on
Saturday into Sunday and allow for southerly flow and warmer
temperatures to return to the region. This flow will bring back
some more moisture into the region and with a weakening upper
trough entering, there could be some snow showers that develop
on Sunday. Another upper trough and low pressure system with a
cold front will enter the Great Lakes region on Monday and bring
rain and snow chances as temperatures improve toward normal
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A ridge of high pressure will remain over the area through
tonight, weakening slightly on Wednesday as a trough settles
south into the Central Great Lakes. Stratocumulus from this
afternoon is dissipating and expect VFR conditions to continue
into Wednesday morning. Low level moisture will increase
Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of this trough with an
expansion of stratocumulus and MVFR conditions.
West winds will be light overnight at 7 knots or less becoming
northwesterly on Wednesday afternoon.
.Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible in widespread snow
showers Wednesday night into Thursday and in lake effect snow
showers across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
through early Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
The ridge across the region will continue to promote light west
flow across the lake tonight into Wednesday. An approaching
trough will flip flow to the northwest for Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure will return to the region for Friday
into Saturday, bringing back weak west flow for Friday and then
southwest flow for Saturday, as the high pushes east. The
southwest flow may pick up a bit on Saturday as a tighter
pressure gradient develops over the lake with the next system
approaching for early next week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...10/15
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...10/15
MARINE...Sefcovic
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 18, 10:08 PM EST---------------
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