JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 6, 7:11 PM EDT196
FXUS63 KJKL 062311
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
711 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers or sprinkles are anticipated through this
evening ahead of a secondary cold front.
- Cooler and noticeably less humid air will arrive behind this
cold front and reside over the area Friday and into Saturday.
- Another passing cold front will bring increasing rain chances to
eastern Kentucky Saturday night into Sunday.
- Cooler air will be reinforced across the region early next
week, before temperatures modify back to above normal by the end
of the period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2024
Modified slight chance (~15) PoPs for the near-term next few
hours to accommodate latest observed trends based on satellite and
radar. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with no significant
changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 438 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2024
Late this afternoon, an enlongated upper level low/trough
extended from Alberta and Saskatchewan to the northern Great Lakes
with a 500 mb trough axis extending south to the Lower OH Valley
and into the Southeastern Conus. A weak impulse/shortwave is
moving through the OH Valley ahead of this trough axis. Meanwhile
an upper level ridge extended from northern Mexico north through
the Rockies. Further northwest, a shortwave trough was moving into
BC and the Northwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure was
over Ontario with the frontal zone trailing into the Lower OH
Valley to the Southern Plains. A ridge of sfc high pressure
extended through the Central to the Northern Plains.
This evening and tonight, the lead weak shortwave/impulse will
move from the OH Valley to the mid Atlantic states as the 500 mb
trough axis also approaches from the west. At the same time, the
enlongated upper low/trough will trend to two closed upper lows
one centered over the northern Great Lakes/Ontario and another
centered over Saskatchewan. The 500 mb trough axis will move east
of eastern KY late tonight to early on Friday. The associated
frontal zone will will move across the Commonwealth as well. Mid
level capping has kept upstream activity and cumulus rather
shallow. However, there are some upstream returns. Some sprinkles
or light showers will be possible with the boundary and the
shortwave trough moving through the area through this evening.
Clear or clearing skies and slackening winds despite drier air
advecting into the region will probably set the stage for at least
some patchy valley fog late tonight following recent wet weather.
Sfc high pressure will build into the mid to Lower MS Valley as
well as the southeast and OH Valley behind the boundary late
tonight and through Friday combined with mid level height rises in
the OH Valley. Following any early day valley fog, sunny or mostly
skies are expected with a few passing cirrus and the potential for
a few shallow cumulus developing during peak heating cannot be
ruled out. The cooler and drier airmass ushered into the region
will lead to highs about 3 to 5 degrees below normal. High
pressure will continue working across the area on Friday night
along with the mid level ridge as the next shortwave/system the
one now near the BC coast and Pacific Northwest having moved near
the US/Canadian border and then southeast into the Central Conus.
A ridge/valley temperature split will be favored across the area,
especially south and southeast for Friday night and valley fog at
least along the largest creeks, ares rivers, and lakes is
favored.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 530 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2024
At the start of the weekend, an elongated east to west trough,
with several embedded vorticity maxima/closed lows, will be stretched
from southeastern Quebec/northern New England to southern Alberta,
while a subtropical ridge is centered across the north central
Gulf of Mexico. Troughing will pivot southeast through the end of
the week, reinforcing lower 500 mb heights across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys, with a passing surface cold front to bring
increasing rain chances to eastern Kentucky Saturday night through
Sunday. PoPs will peak in the likely range (40-70%) Sunday
afternoon. Troughing will remain in place the majority of the
time east of the Mississippi River through mid-week, although
model agreement and smaller scale feature prediction becomes
increasingly problematic with time. As such, have maintained at
least a small chance of mainly diurnally-driven PoPs in place
over the Ohio Valley each day, very close to the offered blended
guidance.
Temperatures will average below normal through Tuesday, with
highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Monday looks to be
the coolest day overall, with highs in the low to mid 70s, and
overnight lows in the lower 50s, with some upper 40s not out of
the question in the typically colder valley locations. Stronger
ridging building in over the central CONUS, will then spread
increasing 500 mb heights over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
Wednesday and especially Thursday, with highs returning to the
80s, and lows mainly back in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, though there
is some uncertainty with regards to brief morning fog formation at
some terminals between 06z and 13z Friday morning. Brief
reductions to MVFR visibility are possible with any fog
formation. A weak cold front may lead to additional isolated
showers moving from west to east through about 03Z. Winds will
average west to northwest at 10 kts or less through the period,
with a few gusts possible 15 to 20 kts Friday afternoon,
mainly at KSYM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 6, 7:11 PM EDT---------------
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