LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 14, 5:50 PM CST ...New AVIATION...385
FXUS64 KLIX 142350
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
550 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Biggest concern in the short term will be the potential for severe
weather tomorrow evening into the overnight hours ahead of an
approaching cold front. Warm and humid air from the Gulf will
surge into the area ahead of the front so there should be plenty
of moisture to work with. Looking at model forecast soundings,
steep lapse rates will be sufficient to support robust updrafts,
and directional wind shear appears sufficient to result in some
rotating storms. While the main threat will be associated with
a QLCS ahead of the front, any storms out ahead of the main line
could also become a concern if they're able to take advantage of
the wind shear. As is usually the case, the main threat will be
damaging wind gusts, especially in any bowing line segments,
though a few embedded tornadoes are also possible. Hail and heavy
rain appear to be the least likely threats.
Should also mention that a tightening pressure gradient ahead of
the front will lead to gusty conditions tomorrow, especially in
areas where breaks in the clouds allow for additional heating to
promote mixing. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph especially
during the afternoon hours, with gusts possibly exceeding 30 mph.
Current forecast comes in shy of wind advisory criteria, but
certainly can't rule out a few gusts to 40 mph or an hour or two
where sustained winds exceed 25 mph. Confidence in that happening
is currently too low to warrant an advisory at this time, so will
allow the next shift to make a final decision on any land-based
wind headlines.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Front should clear the area before daybreak Sunday, with cooler
and drier high pressure moving in behind it. Coldest night behind
this front looks to be Sunday night as the high pressure will
quickly begin to slide eastward Monday ahead of yet another
frontal system.
Next system will affect the area during the Tuesday/Wednesday time
frame. While there are still some significant differences in the
specific details such as where exactly a surface low will form on
the old frontal boundary and the exact time of arrival for the
coldest air, the ensemble consensus approach yields the highest
rain chances Tuesday night, with continued scattered showers/light
rain during the day Wednesday before cold air rushes in Wednesday
night. Currently looks like the old frontal boundary and new
surface low should remain south of coast, which will limit severe
weather potential, but could still see 1-2" of rain.
Bigger impact looks to be associated with the cold air. Based on
the latest guidance it appears likely that much of the area will
see freezing or near-freezing temperatures Thursday and Friday
mornings. With significant greening having occurred during the
warm period from late January through now, these freezing
temperatures could damage some crops and other sensitive
vegetation. Additionally, hard freeze conditions are currently
forecast both nights for portions of southwestern MIssissippi and
the adjacent LA Parishes. Forecast will continue to be refined
over the coming days, but expect to see freeze and/or cold weather
headlines in effect for most, if not all, of the forecast area for
Wednesday and Thursday nights.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Currently MVFR conditions will prevail for all terminals but
lowering into IFR/possibly LIFR is forecast overnight due to low
ceilings although some light patchy fog could cause some vis
issues as well. Conditions will steadily improve after 15/16z to
VFR. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Winds have generally remained more in the exercise caution range
than advisory range, so have replaced the advisory with an
exercise caution headline for all coastal waters through tonight.
Winds will begin strengthening tomorrow in response to a
tightening pressure gradient and advisory headlines will go into
effect from west to east between 06z Saturday and 03z Sunday.
These times are a starting point and may need to be refined with
future updates. Cold front will sweep through the waters late
Saturday night into Sunday, with cold air advection resulting in
continued strong winds through at least midday Sunday before the
gradient begins to relax and winds ease.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 54 80 48 59 / 20 30 100 0
BTR 57 83 51 62 / 10 40 100 0
ASD 57 82 56 66 / 20 20 100 0
MSY 60 81 57 66 / 10 30 100 0
GPT 58 75 58 67 / 10 10 100 0
PQL 59 79 60 71 / 10 10 100 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ530-550-552.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday
for GMZ570-572.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 9 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ550-552.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 9 AM CST Sunday for
GMZ534-536-538-555-557-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Sunday
for GMZ572.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...DM
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 14, 5:50 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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