LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 5:58 AM CST ...NEW AVIATION...991
FXUS64 KLIX 131158 AAA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
558 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
A cold front continues to move east early this morning and should
be south and east of our region by around sunrise or so. Behind
the front, CAA has already started with temperatures and dewpoints
dropping into the 40s over the western portions of the CWFA. The
CAA regime will continue through the day so max temperatures today
will stay well below where we have been over the last several
days. In fact, temperatures may be around or just a few degrees
below average for mid February, with mild afternoon conditions and
crisp mornings. Going into Friday temperatures will still be
around average, however, as a surface high pressure begins to move
east over the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic, surface flow will
transition to southerly quickly increasing the low level moisture
and initiating a warming trend. Within the newly established WAA
regime on Friday, a few low topped brief showers may be possible
embedded within the warm surface return flow. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
A broad scale upper trough will reside over the high plains as
the long term period begins. A rather robust H5 short wave looks
to spread eastward across the Red River Valley during the day
Saturday. This will help push a cold front southeast toward our
region from the midsouth. At the surface, strong WAA is taking
shape with dewpoints rising to near 70 in many cases. Ahead of the
front, instability will be increasing with CAPE values ranging
from 1000-2000 J/kg. Bulk shear will also be increasing,
especially late afternoon and during the evening with a 50kt LLJ
developing over the region. With SRH values approaching 200 m2s2,
give or take...there will be the potential for severe
thunderstorms. There are some limitations and uncertainties still
to work through, such as warm sector shower/convective activity,
which could limit instability. However, if this fails to develop,
there could be a window for a couple of rounds of severe
thunderstorms...one in the later afternoon/evening and one
overnight with the passage of the front. First round would be in
the form of supercells (with a severe hail/tornado potential) as
there will be some directional shear component and the best CAPE.
That said, looking for a trigger, the best forcing and heightfalls
will be delayed or remain just to our north over the mid south
region. So, going into the overnight...overall more shear, but
less CAPE, especially with any rainfall over the earlier uncapped
warm sector. Still, bulk shear values signal the potential for
damaging wind gusts and mesovorts in bowing segments.
By Sunday, the front clears the region and a strong CAA regime
sets up across the region with much below average temperatures on
the way. By Monday morning, temperatures drop to the 30s for most
and even upper 20s across southwest Mississippi. To start the
workweek, a dry northwest flow will be over our region as the
upper level trough continues to spread downstream. This pattern
helping usher in the colder and drier airmass will not hang
around too long before it evolves into a more zonal pattern, which
should be one key to a warm up (albeit modest and brief).
Followed by a return flow developing by Tuesday morning as a
strong surface high pressure moves to our east.
By the end of the forecast period the previous surface front lifts
northward and positions over the central Gulf. A strong H5 impulse
amplifies over the central US pushing another cold front
southward. A triple point low develops over the northwest Gulf.
This is where our next rain and storm chances reside with a
stronger QPF signal within the area of isentropic upglide north of
the warm front over our region through Wednesday afternoon. It is
to be noted this is Day 7 and both the GFS and ECM have this
feature, just vary temporally and spatially. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
Low CIGs continue this morning, but should lift through the day
today to VFR conditions by this afternoon at the latest.
Otherwise, gusty northerly winds today, especially NEW, MSY, and
HUM. Otherwise, clouds increase late tonight...low confidence in
terms of low stratus development, but it could be close to MVFR at
times for most terminals. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025
Hazardous marine conditions are ongoing across the local waters.
There may be some slight improvement later this morning, but this
will only last a brief time before winds and seas increase back to
SCA thresholds this afternoon. Expanded the SCA through Friday
evening, however, another expansion may become necessary as winds
build ahead of the next cold front due into the region late
Saturday or early Sunday. Behind the front, SCA winds are
anticipated through at least early Monday morning before winds and
seas improve briefly as high pressure spreads over the local
waters. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 57 38 64 55 / 0 0 20 20
BTR 62 43 66 59 / 0 0 20 20
ASD 66 43 67 59 / 0 0 10 20
MSY 64 49 67 62 / 0 0 10 20
GPT 65 43 66 58 / 10 0 10 20
PQL 69 43 69 59 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 5:58 AM CST ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
