LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 9:11 AM EST788
FXUS63 KLMK 161411
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
911 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain behind overnight thunderstorms continues with a change
over to snow expected near sunrise Sunday. Snow accumulations
of around 0.5 to 1 inch in southern KY with 1-2 inches in
central KY/southern IN. Locally higher amounts are possible.
- Temperatures continue to fall through the day Sunday, not
returning above freezing until next Saturday. Hazardously cold
overnight lows are anticipated especially late week.
- A winter storm moves through the area starting Tuesday evening
continuing through Wednesday. Significant snow totals and
impacts to travel are expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
Back edge of the snow band continues to work through our western CWA
this morning. A intense band of heavy snow has developed from near
Carrollton KY southwestward through the Louisville metro area down to
Radcliff/Fort Knox/Elizabethtown. Louisville international airport
has gone down to 1/4SM in heavy snow. This band will continue to
move eastward and will be capable of producing 1 in/hr snow rates.
This band of snow will work eastward down the I-64 and Bluegrass
Parkway corridors resulting in negative travel impacts. This band
will also bring heavy snow to Frankfort and Lexington in the next 1-
1.5 hours.
Updated at 741 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
Freezing line is working across the I-65 corridor at the moment. We
had a rain/snow mix at the office around 700 AM that went over to
snow fairly quickly and is accumulating mainly on grassy and
elevated surfaces. The ongoing snow band extends back to near
Evansville and will pivot eastward rather quickly. The snow will
come to an end in our western CWA in the next hour or two and then
exit east of the I-65 corridor between 9-1030 AM. The snow will
then pivot through the Bluegrass and end by lunchtime or so. A quick
1-2 inches of snow will be possible with this band and hazardous
road conditions will be seen for a while this morning. We'll see a
break in the snow from around lunchtime through late afternoon or
so. After that, lapse rates will steepen given continued cold
advection aloft and we'll see a combination of snow streamers and
snow showers this evening, most likely confined to areas east of I-
65.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
A deep trough continues to push through the Ohio River Valley. 850mb
flow continues to intensify ahead of the trough axis pushing
moisture into the region. At the surface, the center of the low
pressure continues along the central parallel of KY. PWATs remain
above 1.25 inches with continued ascent from the nocturnal LLJ, post
frontal lift, and surface convergence.
The synoptic scale cold front drapes from the Great Lakes through
the lower Mississippi Valley. This is ushering the air mass out of
the region. However, very cold air flows in behind the front
sinking temperatures fairly quickly below freezing. This will
transition the post squall stratiform region into a large area of
light to moderate snow. 500mb vorticity advection into the area
promotes even more post frontal lift which has increased snowfall
potential. CAM models show accumulations of at least a trace to 1
inch across areas north and west of the Western Kentucky
Parkway/Bluegrass Parkway. Pockets of two inches are possible across
southern IN with locally higher amounts possible. This wave of snow
moves out of the area Sunday afternoon.
A few additional upper level shortwaves migrate across the area this
evening which looks to create just enough lift through the DGZ
bringing some flurries and light snow across the region
particularly across the foothills of the Appalachians and the
Daniel Boone National Forest. Northwest flow aloft ushers high
pressure into the region. While that does look to quiet the
skies briefly, temperatures continue to decrease. Highs Monday
range from near 30F across the KY/TN border to the low 20s
across the OH River Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
Surface high pressure dominates much of the SE and central CONUS
keeping the bitterly cold Arctic air around through much of the
week. High temperatures remain below freezing with lows in the teens
and single digits through next Saturday. At midlevels, competing
ridges appear to create a bit of a blocking pattern which keeps the
snow a bay through at least Tuesday.
A leeward midlevel low transiting the Red River of Oklahoma reaches
into the lower OH River Valley Tuesday afternoon. Warm frontogenesis
and resultant surface convergence and isentropic ascent create a
favorable environment to develop widespread snow across the region
Tuesday night persisting through the day Wednesday. Snow is the
primary precipitation type as the entire vertical column remains
well below freezing. Snow accumulation forecasts continue to show
the potential for significant snowfall. NBM spreads paints the
lowest forecast values around 1-3 inches peaking at around 8-9
inches with the mean ensemble guidance suggesting around 4-5 inches
of snow. The heaviest snow potential looks to be along a corridor
from Bowling Green to Richmond where chances of > 6 inches of snow
range from 40-55%.
The primary forecast considerations that remain are 1) How will dry
air intrusion from the north cut into snow totals, and 2) How
quickly will the storm transit the area? Model guidance is painting
a rather strange picture with much of the precipitation following the
meteorological profile of the 850mb level cyclone whereas the
surface component resides much further south into LA/MS. This setup
indicates the potential for low level dry air intrusion which may
cut snow totals particularly across the OH River Valley. Secondly,
this storm system looks to behave somewhat similarly to the one we
experienced tonight where the 850mb warm front stalls , and slowly
pivots as the cold side of the system progresses in from the west.
If it is slower, snow totals will lean toward the higher end of the
range; if faster, then the lower end. Even though some uncertainties
remain, confidence is fairly high that a significant and impactful
winter weather is anticipated across the region starting Tuesday
evening/night lasting through late Wednesday evening. Please
continue to monitor for forecast updates as uncertainties are
narrowed and confidence increases.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
A quick hitting round of snow is expected this morning with vis
reductions into the 1-3 sm range at times. Any IFR ceilings should
gradually improve to low MVFR, and then remain there through the
day. Look for gusty WNW winds 15 to 25 mph, gusting around 35 mph at
times. There may be a lull in snow showers late morning through
early afternoon. Then, another round of snow showers is expected
late afternoon into the evening. Ceilings may improve toward
daybreak on Monday, but confidence is low.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening
for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening
for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...WFO EAX
LONG TERM....WFO EAX
AVIATION.....BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 16, 9:11 AM EST---------------
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