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092 FXUS64 KMOB 142159AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL359 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Saturday)Issued at 357 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025Upper level ridging will shift east on Saturday as an upper level trough moves into the plains states. Ahead of this trough, a warmfront will lift northward across the area with southerly flow developing. This southerly flow will bring increasing moisture to the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Ahead of this front, a line of thunderstorms is expected to move across the area late Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. Strong vertical shear profiles and increasing instability levels will support the potential of severe storms along the line. The main threat will damaging wind gusts along the line. A few tornado cannot be ruled out especially along breaks and kinks in the line. Mesoscale models are maintaining a capping inversion between 850mb and 700mbthat will prevent more than just isolated showers through the dayon Saturday with the inversion not dissipating until just ahead of the line. If storms are able to bring through earlier, then thetornado risk would increase. The line of storms will likely enterour southeast Mississippi counties between 10pm and midnight and reach I-65 between 2-4am Sunday morning and clear the area by 8am.A drier and cooler airmass will move into the area behind the front on Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. High temps on Saturday will be in the mid and upper 70s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s inland to near 60 along the coast. /13&&.SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERMS...(Sunday through Friday)Issued at 357 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025A deep upper level trough over the eastern Conus moves off, with zonal upper flow settling over the Southeast for a few days. An associated cold front quickly moves off, with a cold, dry airmass moving over the region for the beginning of the week. Another weaker upper trough moves over the Southeast Wednesday/Thursday. Guidance varies with timing of the passage of this shortwave, with the ECMWF advertising a stronger/faster passage than most of the guidance, with the GFS advertising a slower/weaker passage than most guidance. Behind surface high pressure passing north of the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, isentropic upglide that sets up over the southern Plains passes over the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday. A weak surface low associated with the passing upper trough moves east south of the northern Gulf coast, with a colder, drier airmass moving across the region behind a post system cold front. With the varying strengths/speeds of the upper dynamics, how cold of an airmass moving over the Southeast varies. Have leaned towards the ECMWF/ensemble end of things, with an unseasonably cold airmass moving over the region for the last few days of the coming week. Also, the timing of the precipitation moving off ahead of incoming cold air. All physicals and ensembles move the precipitation off before the freezing air moves in. Have toned back the NBM to reflect the guidance. Am not expecting any winter weather over the forecast area behind the coming system, though will continue to monitor. Will need to monitor for water issues for areas well south of Highway 84, with embedded thunderstorms bringing higher rainfall totals to these areas. Following behind this system, freezing temperatures are expected to return to the entire area for the end of the forecast. Looking at temperatures, a roller coaster is in store for the forecast area. Colder air moving over the forecast area Sunday will bring temperatures topping out in the low 60s northwest of I-65 to around 70 well southeast. Mid 50s to near 60 are expected Monday to around 60 to mid 60s expected on Tuesday. Post frontal cold air will drop temperatures significantly, with the coldest day being Thursday. Low to mid 40s expected north of Highway 84 to upper 40s to near 50 over the I-10 corridor. Looking at low temperatures. Around 30 north of Highway 84 to upper 30s along and south of I-10 are expected Sunday and Monday nights. The coming storm will bring a rise in temperatures Tuesday night, with around 40 north of Highway 40 to near 50 along the coast expected. Now for the big drop, with low temperatures ranging from around 20 well north of Highway 84 to upper 20s to near 30 along and south of I-10 expected. Cold Weather Advisories are expected for most of the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday nights.A High Risk of rip currents expected Sunday will ease to a low into the coming week. A Moderate Risk is expected Tuesday night into mid week with the next system./16&&.MARINE...Issued at 357 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025Moderate easterly winds tonight will become southerly and increase through Saturday night ahead of a cold front. The front will move across the marine area Sunday morning with moderate to strong northwest winds in the wake of the front. Winds will gradually subside through Monday and turn more easterly by Tuesday. /13&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 58 77 58 66 35 58 36 64 / 10 10 100 10 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 61 73 63 68 38 58 40 63 / 10 20 100 10 0 0 0 0 Destin 61 72 64 70 41 58 42 65 / 10 20 90 20 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 54 75 57 65 33 58 30 64 / 10 20 100 10 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 53 79 51 61 30 55 30 60 / 10 20 100 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 52 75 54 62 30 53 30 60 / 10 20 100 10 0 0 0 0 Crestview 56 75 61 70 35 60 32 65 / 10 20 100 10 0 0 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
