ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 12:54 PM EST216
FXUS61 KILN 131754
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1254 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area through Friday. A
disturbance will track across the region Friday night into
Saturday with a stronger system moving from Kentucky into the
upper Ohio Valley Saturday night and Sunday. This could bring
some heavy rain to areas near and south of the Ohio River while
also producing light snow accumulations mainly north and west
of I-71.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some few light snow showers or flurries in a strong westerly
wind are noted southwest and then north-northeast of metro
Dayton at the current hour. Gusty west winds will continue
through at least the ending of any lingering daylight hours
today. The snow showers and flurries will make their way east
towards the Columbus metro area later this afternoon, ending
early this evening. Temperatures will at best be steady in the
upper 20s to around 30 this afternoon, then quickly begin a nose
dive this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build across the area tonight and move off to
the east on Friday. This will allow winds to decrease and
eventually come around to the southeast. In addition, low clouds
will finally scour out tonight. Some high clouds will start to
stream in on Friday afternoon, but still there should be a good
deal of sun. Cold conditions will persist with lows between 10
and 20 and highs in the 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weekend system round 1: Friday evening, an elevated band of snow is
likely to be stretching eastward into eastern Indiana and western
Ohio with low-level dry air initially limiting precipitation from
reaching the ground. Around midnight, saturation will take place
resulting in period of light snow mainly north of I-70. Light
accumulations of around 1" or less are still possible with wet-
bulbing effects initially keeping temperatures below freezing aloft.
Overtime, warm air advection continues to move warmer air
northeastward, especially aloft, causing precipitation to change to
freezing rain overnight and then fully rain by Saturday morning. Any
light ice accumulations are quickly melted with the warmer air
moving in.
Elsewhere across the area, any light snow or freezing rain at the
onset of the precipitation switches over to rain with a few tenths
currently forecast.
Weekend system round 2: Saturday afternoon, the broad area of low
pressure approaching the Ohio Valley will support widespread light
to moderate rain with the heaviest amounts across the Ohio River
area and south. Later in the evening, the primary shortwave trough
enters the region, deepening a surface low pressure in Kentucky. The
low pressure shifts northeastward into the overnight, moving through
the upper Ohio River region through the overnight. This will be the
window of greatest concern for heavy rainfall leading to flooding. A
flood watch has been issued for portions of northern Kentucky and
southern Ohio, highlighting the current area of greatest confidence
for heavy rain. This area is highlighted in the WPC ERO Moderate
Risk and is positioned with the local area relative highest
probability for observing rainfall greater than 2" in 24 hours.
Based on WPC QPF, there was enough justification to take the flood
watch all the way to the I-71 corridor, but there is still quite a
bit of solutions showing only an inch or so north of the current
watch area. In collaboration with WPC and surrounding offices, the
current flood watch stretches from Owen County Ky to Pike County Oh
for the local area. If the trough becomes more amplified, this would
bring higher PWATs northward, with a longer window for heavier rain,
justifying a watch further to the north.
Weekend system round 3: Finally, as the deepening low pressure
shifts east of the area, colder air filters in from the west,
changing rain to snow. There is a great deal of uncertainty with how
much precipitation will actually be in the area by the time this
transition can take place. With this in mind, snow amounts were
limited from a trace to around 2". The highest amounts would be
expected primarily northwest of the I-71 corridor. Some light snow
will is still expected Sunday night into Monday morning with a weak
shortwave moving through the region.
Monday through Wednesday: After the busy weekend, much colder air
filters into the region, with several nights in the single digits
and wind chills near to below zero. The pressure gradient remains
quite tight Monday morning, so wind chill values could be as low as -
10 along and north of the I-70 corridor. Besides the cold air, there
will be some potential for light snow into midweek as a trough digs
into the central Plains. There won't be any question as to the
precipitation type due to the cold air, but how the smaller
shortwave features resolve within the longwave trough will
ultimately determine the details for snowfall chances and amounts.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR cigs will waffle on either side of 2kft this afternoon as
west winds of 12-16kt gusting to 26kt prevail. Near 00Z-02Z,
sky cover will rapidly decrease in favor of clear skies. Winds
will also lose most if not all of the gusts but still stay up in
the 8-12kt until a little after midnight. At this time, high
pressure will rapidly replace the tight surface pressure
gradient in the region, creating light and variable winds. These
winds should become east-southeast towards 18Z tomorrow but this
was only relayed at the extended 30 hour CVG TAF. High clouds
will overspread the region late tomorrow.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions expected Saturday and Sunday.
Wind gusts at or above 20 kt likely on Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
for OHZ079-081-082-088.
KY...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
for KYZ094>100.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 12:54 PM EST---------------
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