LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 6:32 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...061
FXUS63 KLMK 131132
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
632 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Widespread rainfall between 2 and 5 inches Friday night through
early Sunday will likely lead to widespread areal, river, and
isolated flash flooding. Falling temperatures on Sunday could
cause light snow to mix in on Sunday.
* Rapidly falling temperatures into the teens could cause lingering
wet surfaces to freeze. Black ice may be possible for the Monday
morning commute.
* Another system could bring additional snow showers on Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Cold air will continue to advect in behind the departing cold front
today as strong sfc high pressure continues to build over the
central CONUS. Pressure gradient will tighten over the region
producing breezy 20-25 mph gusts out of the west-northwest. Low
level moisture will remain under a temperature inversion keeping
skies cloudy to mostly cloud for most of the day. This will keep it
relatively chilly through out the day with temperatures in the
low/mid 30s during the afternoon. As drier air continues to work in
from the west, skies should start to clear later in the day and we
might get a brief period of sunshine in the late afternoon to right
before sunset.
High pressure will continue to build over the region overnight,
clearing skies and diminishing winds. This will result in a cold
overnight with lows in the mid/upper teens with right around 20
across out southern tier of counties close to the KY/TN border.
For those with concerns regarding the flooding expected this
weekend, today and tomorrow will be the last days to bring
preparations to completion. (See below)
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Friday...
We'll enjoy a dry day on Friday as surface high pressure centers to
our NE. We should see a good amount of sunshine at least through the
morning and early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, we'll see
increasing mid and upper sky cover ahead of the next system. Surface
winds don't really veer to a southerly component through the
daylight hours, so likely won't be able to tap into any warm
advective component. We will get a nice diurnal spike from morning
lows in the teens and low 20s, but still only expecting upper 30s
and 40s across the area.
Friday Night - Sunday Night...
A strong storm system is expected for the weekend, and will bring
flooding impacts to our region. A Flood Watch has been issued for
early Saturday morning through early Sunday afternoon. Widespread
areal and river flooding along with isolated flash flooding are all
possible.
A trough will steadily move out of the western CONUS, and into the
central CONUS through the weekend. Meanwhile, surface low pressure
is expected to develop and strengthen from around the Red River
Valley up through the central Appalachians, with a surface low track
near or directly over our CWA. We'll see overrunning precipitation
with isentropic lift beginning late Friday night/early Saturday
morning, before stronger low level jetting and favorable mid and
upper level forcing take hold through Saturday as the trough axis
arrives. The combination of the strong low level moisture transport
and good mid to upper level support will yield widespread rainfall,
along with a more concentrated frontogenetical band of precipitation
embedded within. The biggest issue is that this band could stay
nearly stationary, or waffle slightly before finally being pulled
through as the surface low/cold front passes Saturday night. In the
meantime, precipitation totals are likely to add up where this band
sets up and lingers. Models have been consistent in saying that this
will most likely be across our southern and central CWA, and some of
the data from earlier today have backed off from a more northern
solution. We tend to like the southern solution in this type of
setup as the frontal band can self-reinforce and limit northward
progression sometimes. See this more often in pure convective
situations with reinforcing outflow, but could happen in this
scenario too, as suggested by the 12/12z global C-Shield solution.
Bottom line is that there is very high confidence in flooding
potential across central and southern KY, with less confidence in
the extent of precipitation across southern IN and far north central
KY.
Overall, the QPF forecast hasn't changes much with 2 to 5 inches
expected across the Watch area. Heaviest rain still looks to fall in
the Green and Cumberland basins, along with the Rolling Fork and
Rough River basins. The Kentucky River basin will see a lot of
upstream contributions from the eastern KY heavy rain, plus 2 to 3
inches over the basin itself in our area. Much of that water
eventually finds its way into the Ohio where flooding will also be
likely later into next week.
Also want to mention we could see a brief severe threat if the
surface low is able to pull up any instability across our SE CWA on
Saturday evening/night. Right now, it appears we are lacking
instability, but perhaps a brief window could materialize if the
track is far enough NW. Something to watch, but seems a fairly low
probability at the moment.
Cold front passes through late Saturday night, with precipitation
ending west to east on Sunday. Could see a brief change over to snow
on the back side, but not expecting any issues from that at this
time. It is worth noting that temperatures drop well into the teens
by Sunday night, so any lingering puddles, wet roadways, etc will
have a good chance to freeze. Black ice due to lingering wet
roadways could be a secondary concern.
Monday - Wednesday...
Fairly high confidence in a dry Monday as high pressure briefly
builds in. However, lower confidence for Tuesday and Wednesday as a
weak wave or two may slide through the area. Looks like a pretty
cold stretch with highs mostly in the 30s each day and lows in the
teens and low 20s. Any precipitation by mid week has a chance to be
snow, and some light accumulations could be possible.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Flight categories will range from IFR for LEX/RGA to MVFR for
SDF/HNB/BWG through most of the day as drier, cooler air filters
into the region. Low level moisture will remain trapped under an
inversion keeping the low stratus around for bulk of the day. High
pressure builds in from the west tightening the pressure gradient
over the region. Winds will gust to 20-25kts this afternoon. As the
high pressure gets closer the skies will start to clear and we will
start to see VFR flight categories return as winds diminish later
tonight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 632 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
Another strong storm system will arrive this weekend, with an
additional 2 to 5 inches of rain in the forecast. Central and
southern KY are currently expected to see the higher totals out of
this wave as well. Overall, total rainfall amounts through next
Sunday could range between 2 and 3 inches across southern Indiana
and north central KY, and 3-5 inches in southern Kentucky.
With already saturated soils, and area rivers and streams continuing
to run high, these waves of rain will make areal flood and river
flood threats increase as we move through the week. The river basins
that stand the biggest threat of widespread minor flooding, and
higher impacts, would be the Green, Rough, Rolling Fork, Cumberland,
Kentucky, and Licking. The Ohio River will also see notable rises
with added rainfall and contributions from tributaries. All of these
streams will be subject to minor flooding, and there's about a 30-
50% chance of some spots reaching moderate flooding on the Kentucky
River. Lower, but notable, chances for major flood in some locations
are also on the table. A moderate risk (level 3 out of 4) of
excessive rainfall has been outlooked for much of central and
southern KY by the Weather Prediction Center.
Stay up to date of the latest forecasts during this active and
impactful stretch of weather.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon
for KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
081-082.
IN...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon
for INZ084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BTN
HYDROLOGY...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 13, 6:32 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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