PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 5:32 PM CST020
FXUS63 KPAH 112332
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
532 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another weather system moves through Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Temperatures will be warm enough for mostly rain for
much of the region with freezing rain and sleet possible for
portions of SEMO, and southern Illinois.
- A third system comes through Friday night through the
weekend. This system would be all rain as temperatures warm
significantly on Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Flow aloft is southwesterly this afternoon with continued
vorticity advection ongoing. At the surface a baroclinic zone
was aligned SW to NE from the Arklatex into the Tennessee
Valley. High pressure was centered across the northern plains
resulting in northeasterly winds across the region. Radar
imagery still shows light radar echoes across portions of the
area this afternoon with above freezing temperatures. Main
weather story will be the weather system to impact the region on
Wednesday and active weather continuing into the weekend and
next week.
On Wednesday, an upper level trof axis will dig into the plains
resulting in surface low development taking place in the
southern plains and lifting northeast across the Tennessee
Valley. A healthy upper jet max to the north will amplify low
level winds resulting in increasing low level temperatures and a
warm nose lifting north across the region. Precipitation will
spread northward on Wednesday with thermal profiles leading to
mostly rain. Forecast soundings in southeast Missouri and
portions of southern Illinois would support sleet or freezing
rain for a few hours. Light icing may be possible Wednesday
morning.
Rain will make its exit late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Cooler
and drier weather is expected from Thursday into Friday as high
pressure slides to the north eventually resulting in southerly
flow for the weekend. The next weather system will approach from
the west Saturday as another upper trof digs into the plains
lifting a surface low through far southeastern portions of our
region. NAEFS shows a signal for heavy rainfall given abnormal
pwats and moisture transport. The forecast calls for 1-4 inches
of rain across the area with this system. This could result in
some flooding issues given antecedent conditions. This system
exits on Sunday with the potential for some back side wintry
precipitation.
High pressure builds in for Sunday into early next week bringing
more cold temperatures but drier weather. Highs Sunday and
Monday likely won't climb above the 30's with lows Sunday night
getting down into the teens.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
As this system moves out another system is right behind it and
will keep our cigs low in the IFR range throughout the period.
Visibilities are lower where there is still ongoing rain and/or
drizzle. Once this moves out there will be a few dry hours with
higher visibilities before the next round of rain moves in from
southwest to northeast.
Winds will continue to be out of the northeast before turning
more northerly at the end of the period. Wind speeds will be
modest overnight between 5-10 kts and then come down some
tomorrow to around light and variable.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 11, 5:32 PM CST---------------
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