LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 8, 2:59 PM EST550
FXUS63 KLMK 081959
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Gusty winds and temps fall off behind the passing cold front
tonight. A few gusty showers or a storm ahead of the front late
afternoon and early evening.
* Potential for wintry precipitation, mainly snow, is increasing
for Monday night into Tuesday. Confidence starting to increase
for minor snow accumulations in the I-64 vicinity.
* Additional chances for precipitation Wednesday Night and
Thursday, as well as next weekend, will lead to an enhanced
potential for flooding across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
The 1007mb surface low is now tracking across southern IN, and will
continue to push eastward to SE Ohio by sunset. As this occurs, a
trailing cold front will quickly move through our area, exiting our
SE CWA by 10 PM EST. A couple of things to discuss before we get to
that point.
The warm sector got established pretty nicely across southern and
central KY this afternoon with the aid from some decent clearing.
Clouds have since moved back in over the warm sector, dropping temps
back in the 60s as that occurs. Picked up some fairly common, but
short-lived wind gusts in the in the 37 to 42 mph range across
southern and east central KY where temps surged just above 70
degrees. Will keep the SPS going to cover that threat through 6 PM
EST, but gusts that high in any one location will be pretty short-
lived so elected to no go with a headline. Will continue to monitor.
Hi-res models continue to suggest that convective elements will
gradually increase along the trailing cold front later this
afternoon through the evening. Given that we have mixed out a bit,
there is some DCAPE to work with across southern and eastern
portions of KY. Can't rule out an isolated strong wind gust or two
as a broken line of cold front forced showers (perhaps a storm?)
moves through. Hi-res models do suggest the mid level cap does erode
for a few hours around 00z across our SE CWA, and if temps are still
overachieving a bit by that time we could end up with some meager ML
CAPE values coincident with some lingering DCAPE. SPC Marginal Risk
covers this, but certainly don't expect any widespread wind threat.
Isolated at best. Directional/speed shear is also quite good during
that time, so if something is able to realize some instability it
could rotate. However, this looks pretty unlikely as temps have
settled back into the 60s where cloud cover has taken over, and
forecast soundings suggest that won't be enough to get any low level
CAPE. Will continue to monitor through the evening though.
Temps fall off tonight pretty rapidly behind the cold front with
values in the upper 20s and low 30s by sunrise Sunday. Lingering low
level moisture could leave a few patches of drizzle overnight, but
overall things will trend much drier. High pressure builds in for
Sunday with much cooler highs confined to the low and mid 40s. Left
a 20% chance of a rain shower along the KY/TN border from previous
shift.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
Sunday night and Monday will be the normal period for this time of
year. Zonal flow aloft will keep seasonal temperatures for mid
February with dry conditions. As we get to Monday, some shortwave
energy moving within that zonal flow will start to activate some
widespread lift east to west from KS/OK into our region, bringing a
return to precipitation.
It will be cold enough at onset overnight to have that precip start
as light snow, especially as you get to the KY Pkwys and points
north. A majority of the long-range ensemble models (LREF) show 925
mb temps staying below freezing in this area as this system onsets.
Believe as the night continues though a warm nose will switch points
between the Pkwys and the I-64 corridor to either a wintry mix or
rain, with points across southern KY likely staying as just rain.
As the main surface low causing this system passes by well south of
our region, latest guidance is showing no real change in precip type
areas through the day Tuesday. That could lead to a narrow swath of
higher snow totals...in the juxtaposed area with moisture coming in
and that freezing line. LREF 25th-75th percentile spread in the
vicinity of the I-64 corridor ranges from 1-5 inches by late Tuesday
night. LREF means in that corridor are in the 2-3" range, a little
higher than what the latest NBM forecast put out when matched up
with WPC's liquid forecast. Could try and match up the output with
the means, but really think the higher amounts here will be in a
narrow swath, so not enough confidence to pick that location this
early in the forecast process.
Fortunately LREF 50th percentile fzra potential is 0.0", but cannot
rule out an even narrower swath with some light fzra potential. LREF
surface/925/850 temperatures are not showing a large swath of
difference with the warm nose to produce much in the way of
fzra...and much of the area surface temperatures look to remain
above freezing...so will keep chances "slight" (20%) or less.
Another storm system follows quickly on the heels of the Tuesday
system, with the best precip chances picking up Wednesday afternoon
and continuing through the night. Deterministic models are in
excellent agreement here, with the low deepening and tracking
northeast across KY in the Wednesday evening hours. Precip type with
the 12Z cycle still is staying as liquid or perhaps a very brief
changeover to snow. Good news with this track is that we could see a
dry slot move across our region, keeping us in a relative minima for
peak totals. This will be needed to keep us from worsening flood
potential with area rivers already running above normal.
High pressure building in behind that system will cool us down
Thursday into Friday before yet another system approaches Saturday.
Guidance is not as unified with the structure of this system, but
they do all have a good precip field over our region. Once again,
this one looks like just a rain maker here.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
A surface low pressure system is moving through our region this
afternoon, and will quickly move eastward by this evening. A warm
front is currently lifting northward across the TAF sites, and then
a trailing cold front moves through this evening. We'll see
increasingly gusty and veering surface winds from S to SW this
afternoon, then SW to NW this evening. Some gusts in the 25 to 35
mph range are possible especially at BWG/LEX/RGA. Any brief clearing
in ceilings will quickly fill back in with low MVFR and IFR ceilings
at the system passes. These ceilings persist until late
morning/midday on Sunday.
Have pretty high confidence in timing of most impactful showers late
afternoon and early evening , and included some TEMPO vis
restrictions with that. In addition, do have a rare period of
daytime LLWS at SDF/LEX due to the warm frontal interface and low
level jet riding over the top. This will also be pretty short-lived.
VFR could return by late in this forecast cycle Sunday PM.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 8, 2:59 PM EST---------------
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