MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 31, 2:00 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...968
FXUS64 KMOB 310800
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
200 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 158 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Upper troughing approaching from the west along with a surface cold
front will be the main driver for our shower and thunderstorm
potential prior to daybreak through this afternoon. A cold front
transits the area during this time, with a low end threat for
stronger thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts associated with
it. Prior to the front, temperatures will be quite warm with most
locations staying in the lower to middle 60's for daybreak
temperatures with a few upper 50's over far interior south-central
Alabama. Instability and forcing are the primary limiters in any
severe weather potential, with generally 250 to 500j/kg of
instability expected through daybreak west of the I-65 corridor.
Upper forcing remains lagged behind the front remaining northwest of
the forecast area, and height falls have continued to trend down as
we approach the event. This will remain the case through the rest of
the day today as well with little in the way of height falls late
morning into the afternoon as a generously broken line of showers
and storms continues east of the I-65 corridor. Despite instability
improving with eastward extent to around 500 to 1,000j/kg, forcing
will be the primary problem as mentioned above preventing a better
severe weather threat. Strong wind gusts will be the primary hazard
in any storms through this afternoon.
Prior to any showers or storms, there still remains some question
marks on if we manage any marine dense fog that can advect onshore.
So far, a low stratus deck has settled in across the region limiting
any form of radiational cooling. Additionally, low level winds
remain rather breezy in the 10 to 15 knot range, with winds atop the
inversion layer over the marine waters approaching 30 to 40 knots.
While areas of dense fog are not expected right now, patchy dense
fog over cooler spots of Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound may
develop, but is not expected to make it onshore at this time.
In the wake of the front, we gradually clear out and temperatures
cool off a good bit compared to the previous night. Nighttime lows
tonight dip into the lower to middle 40's for most locations.
Saturday will still see highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's while
Saturday night sees lows once again dip into the lower to middle
40's. Some patchy dense fog is possible Saturday night as high
pressure settles in along with light winds and clear skies. A High
risk of rip currents continues through tonight, becoming a Moderate
risk on Saturday. MM/25
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
The area dries out through at least mid-week as ridging builds into
the Southeast in the lower levels. Upper level ridging over the Gulf
allows for zonal flow aloft to persist through Monday. Flow aloft
turns southwesterly by mid-week as a shortwave trough meanders
across the western Gulf with ridging generally persisting to our
east. Moisture levels start to increase early next week as deep
onshore flow becomes established overhead. The bulk of the area
remains rain-free through Wednesday, although we can't rule out
isolated showers on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Rain
chances increase, generally north of the Highway 84 corridor, on
Thursday ahead of another front. Patchy, dense fog will be the
predominant weather concern in the overnight and early morning hours
throughout much of next week. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 158 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
A light to moderate onshore flow tonight favors a build in sea
states. Small craft advisories remain in effect for the 20-60 NM
zones this evening into midmorning Friday. For much of the remainder
of the local area, small craft exercise caution headlines are
posted. Patchy to areas of fog possible near the coast tonight. Fog
locally dense at times is possible across Mobile Bay and the
Mississippi Sound. A cold front makes passage Friday afternoon
bringing a light to moderate offshore flow in its wake to open up
the weekend. Winds become light Sunday through Tuesday. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 45 69 43 71 47 74 56 / 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 72 48 69 47 68 50 71 57 / 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 70 51 68 51 69 52 71 59 / 60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 74 43 71 41 74 43 77 51 / 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 71 42 68 41 72 44 77 54 / 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 71 41 70 41 71 42 76 51 / 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 75 45 72 42 74 45 77 53 / 60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 31, 2:00 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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