IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 5, 3:04 AM EDT996
FXUS63 KIND 050704
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms today into early
this evening. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out.
- Cool with below normal temperatures Thursday through Tuesday
- Numerous shower/storm chances Saturday through Tuesday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today across central Indiana
as a cold front sweeps through the area in the late morning to early
evening time frame - a bit slower than previously expected.
Ample moisture is in place ahead of the boundary, with precipitable
water values as high as 1.6-1.9 inches, close to climatological max.
Modest destabilization is expected despite increasing cloud cover,
and weak though potentially sufficient deep layer shear values will
exist for at least a low threat of an isolated strong to severe
storm, primarily in the eastern half to third of the area where
frontal passage will be occurring near peak heating. Primary threats
today will be damaging winds, heavy rain/localized flooding, and
perhaps some marginally severe hail given the distribution of the
forecast CAPE profiles.
Showers and storms will come to an end early this evening as the
front exits the area, and dry weather is expected for the rest of
tonight. Some midlevel moisture will accompany the primary upper
level wave as it slides through the Great Lakes tonight, but dry low
level air will likely prevent anything from reaching the ground,
instead manifesting as some midlevel cloud overnight - this should
help prevent any significant fog formation tonight, though some
patchy fog will be possible due to the rainfall today.
Diurnal range will be limited somewhat today and tonight by the
precipitation and cloud cover, and expect highs to max out around 80
today, and drop to around 60 tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
An active weather pattern appears in store for the end of the work
week through early next week. Models are in good agreement regarding
the general trend of the overall upper pattern, but differ with some
of the timing and forcing details.
Thursday and Friday...
Starting on Thursday, strong ridging is expected to develop over the
western CONUS leading to a deep, negatively tilted trough over
Ontario and the Great Lakes. This is expected to be the prevailing
pattern through early next week. Cooler northwest flow within the
lower levels will be expected as the deep trough aloft allows
Canadian air to arrive across the Ohio Valley and Central Indiana.
Moisture will remain a problem for this system on Thursday and
Friday. The gulf will be effectively cut off, and continental air
will be in place. Forecast soundings on Thursday through Friday show
mainly a dry column as a mid level inversion aloft caps any CU
development. Furthermore, best forcing and moisture looks to remain
wrapped in the main cyclonic flow aloft over the Great Lakes. Thus
will try to trend toward a dry forecast on Thursday and Friday amid
cooler highs. However some low chance pops may be needed across the
northeast parts of the forecast area due to proximity to the better
forcing/moisture.
Saturday and Sunday...
Better chance for showers will be in place through the weekend.
Overall the upper pattern will remain the same, with northwest flow
in place aloft and a deep upper low over western Quebec. However
models suggest a few short waves within the flow aloft to push
across Indiana. Forecast soundings also point toward saturation as
these features pass, although confidence is often low in timing
these waves at this time range. Models also suggest a weak surface
trough/cold front to pass also as it pivots around the low to the
northeast. Thus for now, at least some low chance pops will be
warranted through the weekend. A washout weekend appears unlikely
and many dry hours appear to be expected, but a few passing showers
or storms cannot be ruled out.
Monday and Tuesday...
Models differ a bit here with an unresolved upper pattern. On
Monday, One model suggests the arrival and passage of a upper low
while another suggests ridging aloft amid continued northwest flow.
This is then followed by the upper low departure with ridging
arriving on Tuesday, while the second model allow the arrival of a
short wave on Tuesday afternoon. Thus lots of uncertainty here,
mainly due to the uncertain evolution of the previous upper trough.
For now, low rain chances each day appear quite reasonable until a
higher level of confidence can be achieved.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Impacts:
- Ceilings deteriorating to MVFR around 13-14Z as coverage of
showers begins to increase.
- Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in a 3-6 hour period
starting around 14-17Z depending upon the site.
- Wind gusts approaching 17-20KT around this time ahead of frontal
passage from 210-230 degrees.
Discussion:
Passage of a frontal system today will cause an increase in coverage
of showers and thunderstorms, particularly from around mid morning
into mid afternoon, along with gusty pre-frontal winds and
deteriorating ceilings and possibly visibilities, particularly in
precipitation.
Widespread MVFR conditions are expected, with occasional drops to
IFR possible, mainly in precipitation.
Winds will become gusty ahead of the front, gusting as high as 17-
20KT from 210-230 degrees. These gusts will subside in the evening
as the front departs.
Have concentrated thunder mentions at each site to the most likely
time frame for scattered storms.
VFR conditions will return this evening, though depending upon
rainfall amounts, sky cover, and winds behind the front, some fog
cannot entirely be ruled out late tonight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 5, 3:04 AM EDT---------------
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