ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 6:39 PM EST740
FXUS61 KILN 042339
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
639 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry conditions tonight into
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach the Ohio Valley Wednesday
night, bringing precipitation to the region. After a dry spell
late in the work week, the next chance for precipitation
arrives Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will push through the Great Lakes tonight.
Scattered clouds to start the period will give way to
increasing high- and mid- level clouds later tonight.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s by morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will move off into New England Wednesday
as a low pressure system approaches the Ohio Valley from the
southern Plains. Precipitation should begin to increase in the
Tri-State Region late Wednesday afternoon, spreading across the
rest of the CWA Wednesday evening. Based on a blend of global
models and high-resolution ensemble data, very warm temperatures
aloft along with cold surface temperatures support freezing
rain near and north of Interstate 70. The system has been
getting weaker in the run- to- run guidance. With less forcing,
QPF has decreased. Obviously, uncertainty in QPF leads to
similar uncertainty in ice accretion. In addition, model road
surface temps are above freezing. In areas that receive
freezing rain, impacts may be focused on bridges and overpasses.
Based on collaboration with neighboring offices, have opted to
hold off on headlines for this package. Improving confidence in
the associated factors listed above will offer opportunities to
revisit this decision.
Temperatures will warm above freezing area-wide late Wednesday
night, even into the 40s and 50s by Thursday morning's commute.
This will quickly melt any ice accretions.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front to the east and north of the region at the beginning of
Thursday will be exiting as westerly flow aloft continues to usher
it eastward. Some lingering rain is possible for the morning hours,
generally southeast of the I-71 corridor. This threat of rain will
end by mid-morning though skies will remain mostly cloudy.
The forecast remains dry after this until late Friday night when a
baroclinic zone sets up ahead of a northeastward moving surface low
pressure center. Mid level vorticity maxima are embedded in the
westerly flow and will spark the initiation of the precip over the
region. Behind it, the forcing will come from the development of a
warm front ahead of the surface low and rain will become the
dominant weather across the CWA by Saturday morning. Upper flow
never switches from a westerly component, and the warm frontal
processes have moved east and northeast of the CWA by later Saturday
afternoon. During this time, a prolonged rainfall event should be
under way. The low will be situated northeast of Ohio, with a
trailing cold front laying out over southeastern and southern CWA by
late evening. At this time, rain will be primarily oriented sw-ne
along this front which will be exiting to the east overnight in the
continued zonal westerly flow aloft.
High pressure follows this system and crosses the mid sections of
Indiana and Ohio Monday morning, with a remnant boundary lingering
along this line through the evening. Afterwards, another nose of
high pressure will enter from the northwest and continue to keep the
region dry through the end of the forecast period.
Temperatures are expected to warm on Thursday behind the warm front
and again on Saturday behind the next warm frontal passage.
Saturday's temperatures are a solid 5-10 deg warmer than operational
MOS guidance.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All sites remain VFR during the overnight hours tonight into
Wednesday. Clouds continue to thicken/slowly lower and winds
shift to out of the east/northeast around 7 knots.
Similar trends continue through the much of the day Wednesday.
By Wednesday late afternoon/evening, conditions begin to
decline, with MVFR clouds moving into the Tri-State accompanied
by rain showers. Temperatures will be warm enough that precip
will fall as rain in this location. In fact, some thunder cannot
be ruled out. In the extended CVG TAF, have dropped CIGs to
IFR.
For sites farther northeast, rain will continue to overspread
during Wednesday evening into the overnight, with some chances
for freezing rain at sites along and north of I-70.
OUTLOOK...Thunder possible Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. MVFR to IFR conditions likely Wednesday night into
Thursday night. MVFR to IFR conditions expected again for
Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...CA
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 6:39 PM EST---------------
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