LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 8:44 PM CST ...New UPDATE...251
FXUS64 KLIX 280244
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
844 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Skies remain mostly cloudy across the area. Any locations
with occasional breaks in the clouds won't likely keep them for
long. Going to need some cold and dry air advection for low
temperatures to reach forecast values overnight, and right now,
wind speeds aren't really indicating that is happening. There is a
little more wind on the Mississippi coast than elsewhere, but they
are also warmer than everyone else.
With the expectation that stratus is going to build down closer to
the surface, and potentially cause issues on the Lake
Pontchartrain Causeway and the Twin Spans, will leave the Marine
Dense Fog Advisory in place. Not seeing enough indications of low
visibilities in land areas to necessitate a land based advisory at
this time. Any adjustments to the ongoing forecast will be minor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Overcast skies have been the rule across the northern half of the
CWFA this afternoon. We did start the morning with some shower
activity where BTR got over half of an inch before the rain
dissipated and moved out of the region as a surface front
continued to move downstream. Aloft, mostly a zonal flow has set
up, so despite the weak frontal passage, not much of a
temperature change on the backside...although it is slightly
drier. That said, albeit dry some low level stratus build-down or
even lake fog has developed this afternoon. Models have been
struggling with the VIS aspect...so went with a marine dense fog.
That said, visible satellite has really started to clear out
locations across the southshore this afternoon outside of NEW,
which remains in the "soup" if you will.
Confidence is there that low stratus will remain across the region
tonight given some weak isentropic upglide north of the surface
front. How much of this builds to the surface is a bigger
question. At this juncture, went with patchy fog across most of
the region to account for at least some fuzzy visibilities.
However, low level dry air advection will be a limiting factor.
Also, the set up isn't quite favorable for marine fog but as we
have seen over the lake today, it not exactly limiting it either.
A weak upper level ridge will begin to develop over the northwest
Gulf by Tuesday. With the weak ridge and zonal flow, expect
temperatures to remain at or even slightly above average,
especially given the lack of a a Canadian influence (a far and
wide difference from just a week ago). (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
By midweek, overall the mostly zonal flow should continue. Surface
high pressure will finally start exiting stage east, which should
allow a return flow to develop. Indeed, as rich low level
moisture moves over the very cool local Gulf, Lake, and River
waters, we'll need to continue to watch fog potential well into
the long term period. Over the four corners region, a strong
cutoff low develops and spins a few impulses around, which could
spark some shower activity along the Red River where a surface
front should start to develop. Along the front Globals show a weak
surface low developing over the TX Hill Country before moving
north and east within the southwesterly upper flow. The upper low
also finally begins to move downstream over the high plains of
CO/KS late Wednesday and especially during the day on Thursday.
As this upper low and surface low downstream move north and
eastward, a surface front will approach our region from the west
late Thursday and into Friday. Taking a look at some severe
parameters considering the influx of pretty decent low level
moisture...well I guess not decent enough because instability
within the globals is a bit lacking. Furthermore, to limit the
concern the best jet dynamics look to be displaced temporally
with a strong 140kt H3 jet pushing into the region Thursday night
or roughly 12 hours prior to frontal passage. There is still some
time to watch these features to see if they better align, but
given the limitations of timing of the front and also lack of
diurnal influence, think any severe threat will be limited for
now. Although, the H85 45kt jet looks quite impressive...if timing
does better align there could be a conditional low cape/high shear
threat there.
The front will be rather transient in nature and with again little
if any Canadian/Arctic influence, temperatures do not look to cave
too much on the backside of the front next weekend. In fact, highs
late next weekend and into early next week look to be largely
around 70F. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Most terminals reporting MVFR ceilings at forecast issuance, but
KBTR is VFR. Trend will be toward lowering ceilings with most or
all at IFR beyond 06z, with some potential to go to LIFR or lower.
Should start to see some improvement around 15z Tuesday, with most
or all becoming VFR during the afternoon hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Light offshore flow is expected over the next couple of days as
high pressure spreads into the region from the northwest. This
high pressure will eventually shift eastward by late Wednesday and
into Thursday. This will allow for low level winds to build out
of the south (onshore) again late in the week ahead of our next
frontal boundary due into the region during the day on Friday.
Cautionary headlines may be needed and cannot rule out the need
for advisories beyond 20 NM. Otherwise, the only other main
concern could be fog development as rich low level moisture moves
over a very cold water surface. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 42 64 48 71 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 47 67 52 72 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 45 65 50 70 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 49 63 52 69 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 44 62 48 66 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 44 67 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-534.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ534.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 8:44 PM CST ...New UPDATE...---------------
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