CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 4:18 AM EST638
FXUS61 KCLE 040918
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
418 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build across the region through
tonight, followed by a low pressure system late Wednesday into
Thursday. This low will briefly lift a warm front north through
the area Thursday morning, followed by a cold front Thursday
evening. High pressure will briefly return on Friday, followed
by another low pressure system for Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold and mostly cloudy day is in store across the region
following the cold frontal passage last evening. A mid-level
shortwave will move east through the Lower Great Lakes later
this morning and afternoon which could result in periodic, light
snow showers across portions of the snowbelt, though a mostly
ice-covered Lake Erie and marginally-cold temperatures aloft
should limit any notable accumulations.
Surface high pressure will briefly settle across the Lower Great
Lakes late tonight into Wednesday morning, helping to dry out
the low-levels as the next system begins to approach from the
southwest. Some models depict a narrow west to east-oriented
band of snow developing across northern Ohio late Wednesday
morning and afternoon. However, given the relatively narrow
band and limited low-level moisture associated with the exiting
high pressure, confidence remains low on the location and
potential snow amounts resulting from this feature.
For information on the potential for a wintry mix, including
freezing rain, sleet, and snow Wednesday night, please see the
discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave trough over the middle CONUS merges with a much deeper
and stronger trough that moves in from the upper Midwest. The
surface low associated with the weaker low develops over the middle
Mississippi Valley, quickly tracking northeast across IL/IN/OH
before quickly moving north and being absorbed into the stronger low
to the north. The details on the low track/strength will be
important and we'll discuss why that is below. Precipitation will
develop well ahead of the surface low in response to isentropic lift
aloft, with the expansive precipitation shield moving northeastward
across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
This system is a little tricky to forecast for, especially for
precipitation type, though confidence in the general idea continues
to increase over the last few forecast cycles. Ambient air and
surface temperatures will be well below freezing to start with
forecast temperatures in the mid to upper 20s around 00-03Z/Thu.
Leading edge of precipitation may initially begin as snow/sleet mix
before transitioning to mainly freezing rain for much of the area
with some sleet mixing for some areas Wednesday evening through
Wednesday night, as confidence is high in warming temperatures aloft
overtop sub-freezing surface temperatures. Should see a transition
to all rain as the warm front lifts northeast across the area,
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, with all rain expected by
daybreak Thursday.
The most impactful part of this system is expected to be from ice
accumulations. There is very high confidence in at least 0.01" of
ice accumulations areawide, and it is a near guarantee at this point
(unless there is a massive shift in model guidance). There is some
uncertainty with exact amounts, though confidence in 0.05-0.15" has
been increasing with locally higher amounts to 0.25" (which is ice
storm warning criteria). Best chance for those higher ice
accumulations (>=0.25") and expected impacts will be near the Toledo
area, where easterly flow off of Lake Erie may keep ambient
temperatures lower for a bit longer. Current deterministic forecast
has about 0.05-0.15" areawide with around 0.2" in and around Toledo.
There continues to be some uncertainties with the current suite of
model guidance, although this is largely driven by the NAM and NAM
Nest which has been showing tendencies of taking the surface low
farther south and much less overall QPF (and then lower freezing
rain amounts). This appears to be a fairly significant outlier
compared to the three major global models (GFS, CMC, and ECMWF), and
even compared to the end of the regional models such as the 06Z
HRRR, 03Z Rap, and 00Z FV3.
For impacts, it goes without saying that freezing rain will lead to
poor road conditions Wednesday evening through early Thursday
morning, and that will especially be the case for untreated
surfaces. Freezing rain will efficiently make road surfaces slick,
especially given initial air temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.
These road impacts increase with higher amounts, as well as if
snow/sleet mix in at any point. It's uncertain how much the Thursday
morning commute will be impacted, because temperatures are expected
to be rising to mostly above freezing by 12Z, though there are some
model discrepancies in that regard (e.g. NAM and GFS keep it a bit
colder longer into the morning hours). However, confidence is much
higher that the morning commute in the Toledo area and Northwest
Pennsylvania will be impacted. With higher amounts of ice
(especially at 0.25" or greater), power outages due to wire and tree
damage become possible.
For headline decisions, a winter storm watch was considered for the
Toledo area and vicinity. However, due to uncertainties mentioned
above, held off on that to give us another look at the next cycle of
forecast data, which will include more regional and hi-res model
guidance. A winter weather advisory is very likely at some point in
the future for this system.
Should see rain quickly end Thursday afternoon/evening, with a cold
front crossing the region. Should see temperatures drop down into
the 20s Thursday night as high pressure builds in. Should see a bit
of sun Friday as high pressure builds in overhead, though
temperatures remain chilly and below freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper-level trough moves across the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions Saturday through Sunday. A deepening low (to around 1000mb)
is expected to move northeast nearly overhead Saturday into Saturday
night. The p-type forecast is eerily similar to our Wed-Thu system
with a wintry mix becoming more and more likely with each new suite
of forecast data. Expanded the mention of freezing rain and sleet
areawide for this system as latest ensemble data shows a 40-50% of
>0.01" (which is fairly high probability for a day 5 forecast).
Temperatures remain chilly on Sunday and Monday as high pressure
builds in, with highs in the low 30s and lows in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Mixed-bag of MVFR, IFR, and LIFR conditions continue across the
region early tonight, associated with both lower ceilings an
vsbys from mist and/or fog. Pockets of 1/4sm fog will remain
possible at CAK/MFD/YNG over the next several hours. Conditions
should gradually improve to MVFR and perhaps pockets of VFR
developing by mid to late morning. Generally MVFR ceilings
should return across the area by later this afternoon.
Improvement to VFR is likely across much of the TAF sites by
later this evening, though still can't rule out some pockets of
MVFR ceilings.
Winds are generally out of the north early tonight, around 10
knots. Winds will generally favor a north to northwest direction
today, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 knots possible
this afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in rain and/or snow Wednesday evening
into Thursday. A brief period of freezing rain is likely
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Non-VFR likely in may
return in widespread rain and/or snow on Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Fairly inconsequential marine forecast for the next day or two as
winds remain at or under 15 knots through at least Wednesday. Low
pressure moves across the area Wednesday night into Thursday with a
period of 20-30 knot westerly winds expected Thursday into Thursday
night. Conditions improve on Friday as high pressure builds in.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
due to extensive ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 4:18 AM EST---------------
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