JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 7:00 AM EST837
FXUS63 KJKL 041200 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
700 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Normal to well above normal temperatures will prevail for the
next week.
- Watching the sub-freezing air on Wednesday most likely (80-90%)
staying north of the area but it could affect locations well
north of I-64 with a small shot at freezing rain.
- Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday
through Thursday evening, and again this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as the front
continues to progress southeast into the area. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 505 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
09Z sfc analysis shows the cold front making steady progress
through eastern Kentucky early this morning. This is passing
mostly dry but do still expect some sprinkles and drizzle to be
falling from the lower deck of clouds in places. There is also a
distinct wind shift as this boundary passes with winds turning
from the west at 5 to 10 mph to north-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Currently, ahead of the front, temperatures are running in the 55
to 60 degree range with a few colder pockets remaining in the
eastern valleys. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the mid 40s
to mid 50s - highest near the front to the northwest.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in very
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict northwest mid level flow gradually
flattening through the short term period as troughing moves out of
the northeast and ridging weakens over the Deep South. In the
flow, which trends toward zonal on Wednesday, a developing wave
will approach the Ohio Valley by that evening with only weak
energy passing through until that point. Even so, the height falls
and change in the mid level flow appears to be enough to start to
moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere over Kentucky even
if the dynamics aloft remain weak. The model spread is small
enough aloft to make the NBM a reasonable starting point for the
forecast grids, though with some adjustments for PoPs through the
period to account for the low QPF but higher PoP nature of this
regime, at least initially. Did also fine tune the temperatures
on Wednesday in the vicinity of a cold front sagging into the
north and encouraging easterly sfc flow.
Sensible weather features a very warm night still underway ahead
of the southward descending cold front. This will work through
most of the CWA by dawn with CAA keeping temperatures from
rebounding much into this afternoon. This front then starts to
work back north later tonight with a better chance for some rain -
but much of the time drizzle and sprinkles will be the dominant
weather type. The thermal gradient in temperature along this
boundary will tighten through the day on Wednesday with a strong
warm nose keeping all the increasing pcpn as rain aloft, but the
sub freezing sfc temperatures will not be too far off to the north
of the JKL CWA where freezing rain will be a concern. Currently,
model consensus is even far northern Fleming County stays with
just liquid pcpn despite easterly winds locking in the colder air.
This will need to be watched to ensure that the subfreezing air
does not shift south in a meaningful way. As such, kept
temperatures coolest (near 40 degrees for highs) in the east sfc
flow zones on Wednesday but still allowing low 60s for highs in
the far southeast.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
tweaking the PoPs up early this morning with the front but near
zero QPF. Likewise, the PoPs were increased late tonight into
Wednesday afternoon given the growing depth to the moisture over
the area and nearby front acting as a lifting mechanism. For
temperatures - started with a derived maximum on Wednesday from
the NBM hourlies but then lowered those hourlies in the north for
only a small diurnal rise into the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 417 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
The extended period will be quite active, with a series of strong
low pressure systems expected to move across the country. The first
bout of unsettled weather will take place Wednesday night through
Thursday night, as a northern stream trough interacts with a
southern stream trough, with a slow moving frontal boundary shared
between them. Widespread clouds and rain will move through the
region as the front moves across our area. Not only will be see
widespread rain, which could be locally heavy at times, the latest
model soundings suggest that enough instability will be available to
fire off a few thunderstorms along the front. The rain will finally
begin to taper off early Friday morning, as the northern trough
moves off to the east into New England. The front is then expected
to move just to south of our area and nearly stall heading into the
upcoming weekend.
Our second round of rain will take place Friday night through
Saturday night, as a wave of low pressure develops over the central
Plains along the western portion of the stalled front. The latest
GFS Ensembles and WPC guidance also suggest that another northern
stream system will move through the region in conjunction with the
southern system, adding to the potency of the over trough pattern.
Again, we will see widespread showers along with a few thunderstorms
across eastern Kentucky Saturday and Saturday night, as the southern
stream systems cold front moves through and nearly stalls over the
region. A ridge of high pressure will try to settle over the region
Sunday night into Monday, after the second trough moves away to our
east, but will quickly be displaced by cooler air moving in from the
north and yet another southern stream storm system that is expected
to move into the area from the southwest Monday night into early
Tuesday. With colder air moving on the northern periphery of the
third storm system, we could see rain mixing with and changing to
snow Monday night.
Temperatures will quite varied as well. It looks like the first half
of the period will start off quite warm, with highs in the mid to
upper 60s on tap for Thursday and Saturday, as persistent southerly
flow feeds warm, moist air into the region as the first storms
systems move through. Things should cool off quite a bit on Friday,
however, as winds temporarily shift the northwest, north, then
northeast Thursday night through Friday night. A much more concerted
push of cooler air will invade the area over the weekend and into
the first of next week, as winds again shift to a northerly
component after the passage of the third storm system. As it
stand, highs on Friday will likely only crack the mid to upper 40s
along and north of I-64, and the 50s elsewhere. Max daytime values
Sunday and Monday are expected to reach the 40s and 50s. The
models did differ a bit depending on the solution with timing and
evolution of the weather systems being forecast, but in general
agreed on a very active flow pattern both aloft and at the
surface, with multiple storm systems and bouts of precipitation
forecast to move through the region. Weather hazards will include
any cloud to ground lightning that occurs with thunderstorms this
weekend and over the weekend and locally heavy rainfall,
especially Wednesday and Thursday, when a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall is currently in place across central and
portions of eastern Kentucky.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2025
Lower clouds are accompanying a mostly dry cold front dropping
through eastern Kentucky early this morning. Winds of 5 to 10 mph
with some higher gusts will switch from the northwest to
northeast into midday in the wake of this boundary. Clouds will be
MVFR to IFR for a time this morning before a scattering out
occurs from north to south this afternoon. Some patchy light rain
or drizzle will also be possible with the frontal passage, but
visibility reductions below 6SM are not expected. Later tonight,
more low clouds will develop and move from southwest to northeast
as the front starts to make a trek back north.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 4, 7:00 AM EST---------------
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