IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 9:35 PM EST704
FXUS63 KIND 030235
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
935 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures expected on Monday with highs in
the mid 50s to mid 60s.
- Wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph Monday afternoon.
- Rain will move in on Wednesday and a few thunderstorms are
possible over all but our north most two tiers Wednesday night.
- More rain will be likely for the weekend.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Lower stratus from earlier today has shifted well north of the
region with a relatively dense layer of high clouds left across the
region. Winds had lightened considerably since sunset with a wide
range in temps from the mid 30s in north central Indiana to the mid
40s further south as of 02Z.
The primary addition for the evening update is to introduce patchy
fog to northern portions of the forecast area into the overnight.
Already seeing obs sites occasionally slip down to 1-2SM and lower
and model soundings indicate the presence of a lingering shallow
inversion with moisture trapped in the near surface layer. Soundings
show that inversion persisting for much of the night before giving
way closer to daybreak Monday as southerly winds increase within the
near surface layer.
Temperatures will drop 2 to 3 more degrees at most for lows. Zone
and grid updates out.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Skies have partially cleared across much central Indiana this
afternoon. Combined with a steady southwesterly breeze, temperatures
have rebounded quickly into the low to mid 50s. Locations across our
northeast are still socked in with clouds and thus have temperatures
in the 40s. Recent satellite has shown cloud cover trends leveling
off or even increasing in a few locations. Therefore the amount of
additional warming should be limited and most places should already
be within a few degrees of expected highs.
A fast-moving storm system is now exiting the region to the
northeast. Aside from a few showers in northern Indiana, the most
noticeable effects of this system are the southwesterly winds and
strong warm advection. Winds should diminish overnight and become
southeasterly as the MSLP gradient weakens. Though weaker, warm
advection continues overnight and low temps may not reach freezing
for the majority of our CWA. In fact, lows in the 40s are expected
across our south.
However, another similar system is quickly approaching from the
west. This one looks to take a more northerly track, but should be
close enough to re-tighten the MSLP gradient allowing winds to
restrengthen on Monday. Gusts around 25 knots are possible during
the afternoon hours. This along with another round of warm air
advection could bring about the first 60+ degree day of the year for
many.
Intervals of mid to high-level cloudiness can also be expected
tonight and through the day on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Temperatures will start off cooler yet still well above normal as a
cold front slides well to the southeast Monday night. There is some
concern for low clouds and perhaps some drizzle per Hi-Res
soundings. On Tuesday, Hi-Res soundings are supportive of a decent
amount of sunshine with perhaps just some mid and high clouds within
the fast zonal flow aloft and under the influence of broad surface
high pressure nosing in from the northwest on Tuesday.
For later in the long term, a problematic forecast is ahead as two
rain producing systems will track across the region within general
fast zonal flow. There is the potential that all or parts of the
forecast area will receive a soaking rain and a few thunderstorms
midweek. The question is if this system will closer resemble the
stronger and further northwest solutions of the ECMWF/ECENS and CMC
or the weaker and much further southeast track of the GFS/GEFS. The
former combo would support a further north flow of warm, moist and
unstable air conducive for a few thunderstorms up to the I-74
corridor or possibly further north starting Wednesday evening.
With the model uncertainty, stuck close to the previous forecast and
will adjust as confidence on the track increases. This favors a
solution more similar to the ECMWF/ECENS and CMC combo with a
surface low lifting from northern Missouri to the Great Lakes
Wednesday night and a warm front to lift northeast across central
Indiana Wednesday evening and early overnight. DESI LREF
grand ensembles support the potential for surface base CAPEs as
high as 200 to 700 J/KG to develop in the warm sector late
Wednesday evening with the highest instability likely over areas
south of I- 74. 50+ knot SW low level jet along with the
instability is expected to supply plenty of fuel for widespread
rain and embedded thunderstorms somewhere nearby at the least.
Will continue the trend of 80+ percent PoPs Wednesday afternoon
and night. The rain threat should end by Thursday night as an
associated cold front moves southeast across the area.
Temperatures will also depend heavily on the track of this system
and DESI LREF grand ensemble large percentile differences clearly
display that. Do to that low confidence, will not make any large
changes to temperatures. With the warm front moving through, it is
still likely the high temperatures will be during the night with
50s possible, especially over southwestern sections. We can not
even rule out 60s in that area based on the 90th percentile 2m
temperatures for 00z Thursday.
After a brief dry period, another low pressure system will lift
northeast across the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes. Once again the
ECMWF/ECENS is stronger with a northwest track compared to the
GFS/GEFS. So, confidence is low on PoPs and temperatures and thus
will not make any big changes. Temperatures should bounce back to
the 40s and 50s on Saturday as rain develops somewhere over the
vicinity. The best chance of rain looks to be Saturday and night.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 532 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings diminish this evening at KLAF
- Patchy fog possible at KLAF for a few hours overnight
- Wind gusts up to 25kt on Monday
Discussion:
Lingering lower stratus is retreating to the northeast late this
afternoon and will continue to do so this evening. May briefly see
MVFR ceilings at KLAF at the beginning of the forecast period before
returning to VFR. Mid and high level clouds will stream across the
region tonight and into Monday as a fast moving low pressure tracks
from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Light and variable flow
overnight will become brisk on Monday as a tighter surface pressure
gradient develops south of the low track. Expect peak gusts up to
25kts from the southwest at all terminals Monday.
A trailing cold front from the surface low will swing through the
region by Monday evening...with winds diminishing and veering to a
westerly direction near the end of the forecast period.With a dry
airmass...expect just an increase in clouds accompanying the frontal
passage.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 2, 9:35 PM EST---------------
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