PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 5:40 AM CST761
FXUS63 KPAH 031140
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
540 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the
week ahead with temperatures forecast to be near record highs
Monday.
- Rain returns to the forecast Tuesday night through Thursday
and again over the weekend. There is a chance of thunderstorms
in both periods, but the chance of strong to severe storms and
heavy rainfall seems to be dwindling.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2025
Today will be very "Spring-like" with gusty southwest winds,
increasing humidity, and very warm air. There is some
uncertainty in the low cloud forecast, but if the cu remain
scattered, temperatures will climb into the lower 70s which will
challenge daily records in most locations. Mixing will also be
enhanced, which could lead to some wind gusts up to 30 mph
through the day.
A cold front will move through the region overnight tonight, so
it will be a very mild evening, then gusty northwest winds will
bring temperatures crashing down by morning. The post-frontal
winds could gust to around 20 mph. Winds will diminish some and
become northeasterly Tuesday, which will set the stage for a
period of significant warm advection and more rain.
The latest guidance seems to be favoring a more northward track
with the surface low Wednesday into Wednesday night, so the
entire Quad State should eventually get into the warm sector by
Wednesday night. The warm frontal passage could take Tuesday
night and much of Wednesday. With the models indicating little
instability even for elevated parcels, this will likely be a
large area of grungy light rain/drizzle with a some embedded
heavier showers or a stray thunderstorm.
The cold front will move through the Quad State late Wednesday
night into Thursday. Most of the Quad State should see a few
hours of dry weather Wednesday evening as there will be little
chance of warm-sector convection/precipitation. The best chance
of thunderstorms will the near the cold front overnight
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, instability
will remain limited to all parcels, and so the severe storm and
heavy rainfall potential will be limited as well.
Post-frontal showers may linger through much of the day
Thursday, especially in west Kentucky, but a weak area of
surface high pressure should bring dry conditions and some
clearing Thursday night and Friday.
Beginning Friday night there will be a very similar chain of
events as are forecast with the mid-week system. Grungy
conditions should return Friday night and continue into
Saturday as a warm front attempts to push through the region.
Then a cold front will pass Saturday night or Sunday. Confidence
in any substantial instability over the weekend is low, but we
will monitor for any increase in thunderstorm, severe weather,
or heavy rainfall potential this weekend.
Of course, temperatures will be modulated by frontal movements
and associated cloud cover and precipitation, but in general
they should remain at or above normal through the weekend.
Looking a bit further ahead, there is a decent signal in the
medium-range guidance for a third round of frontal undulations
and precipitation next Tuesday and/or Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2025
South southwest winds will increase this morning and gust
15-25kts through the day. Along with the increased winds will be
an increase in low-level moisture, with the potential for at
least occasional MVFR ceilings mainly in the afternoon. Winds
will subside below 10kts this evening and then a cold front will
arrive. Northwest winds may gust 15-20kts overnight behind the
front, and another period of MVFR ceilings is likely.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 5:40 AM CST---------------
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