PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 7:28 AM EST342
FXUS61 KPBZ 031228
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
728 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Light showers return tonight, with dry weather again Tuesday.
More widespread rain, snow, and an increasing chance of
freezing rain for some return Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Areas of fog this morning
- Dry and warmer conditions today.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Update...
Areas of fog continue this morning, especially along and north
of I 80. Recent surface observations show that visibility is
starting to improve, and this trend should continue through the
morning. The current Special Weather Statement highlights these
conditions. Elsewhere, patchy fog is expected, with conditions
again improving through mid morning.
Previous discussion...
Ridging will briefly build over the region today, ensuring dry
weather as warm advection in southwesterly flow intensifies.
This will boost afternoon temperatures into the 50s for much of
the region, with a 60-90% chance south of Pittsburgh of hitting
60F for the first time this year.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Light rain chances Monday night with a cold front.
- Dry and cooler temperatures Tuesday.
- Mixed precipitation and increasing odds of freezing rain for
some Wednesday and Wednesday night.
- Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday night south and
southwest of Pittsburgh.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Low pressure crossing from Ontario into Quebec will pull a cold
front through the region Monday night. In the absence of deeper
moisture and significant upper support, brief and light
scattered showers are all that is expected late Monday evening
into the overnight. QPF will amount to a few hundredths across
much of the area, with best focus and perhaps a quarter inch or
so along the ridges overnight.
Stronger cold advection should arrive Tuesday morning behind
the front, dropping temperatures below freezing except south of
Pittsburgh Tuesday morning. Light showers look to end before
significant temperature drop, so a changeover to frozen
precipitation is not expected, but any puddles lingering on
roads could lead to isolated black ice Tuesday morning. Building
high pressure will keep conditions dry, and should help to at
least partially clear skies by the afternoon. High temperatures
should end up near-average for most of the area.
Our next significant system will impact the area Wednesday and
Thursday as surface low pressure crosses out of the Central US
and into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. Some uncertainty
remains in the timing of light precipitation onset Wednesday
morning or afternoon, but confidence is high in widespread
precipitation overspreading the area from the southwest
Wednesday evening into the overnight. Precipitation will then
exit the area Thursday night.
Precipitation type will be the predominant challenge with this
system, and freezing rain may impact portions of the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Depending on onset time and
arrival of warmer air, initially light precip Wednesday may
arrive as freezing rain or snow across southern portions of the
area. However, by Wednesday evening, confidence is increasing
that a deep layer of warm air below 700mb will overrun cooler
surface temperatures. Where surface temperatures remain below
freezing, a period of freezing rain is expected before
eventually transitioning to all rain Thursday morning.
At this time, the area most likely to see freezing rain Wednesday
night is across the Allegheny Mountains and Laurels and into
the I-80 corridor east of Grove City, PA (>40%) with increasing
probability farther east (>90% near Dubois, PA and across
eastern Indiana Co.). However, it is still possible for other
areas to see a light glaze of ice if surface temperatures remain
cooler for longer. Icing may be significant in the areas
mentioned above. NBM probabilities paint a 30-40% chance of
>0.1" of ice along the Laurels and up through DuBois.
Rain will continue on Thursday as the system shifts east and
temperatures surge back into the 50s. Soundings even suggest
the possibility for elevated instability and some thunder chance
south of Pittsburgh early Thursday morning. Rain will taper off
through the afternoon. Gusty conditions (20-30kts) on Thursday
may knock down any limbs damaged by ice, and could hamper power
restoration.
One final impact is worth mentioning: excessive rainfall. Rain
Wednesday through Thursday (heaviest Wednesday night) may total
>0.75 for much of the area and near an inches across the ridges.
WPC has introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
primarily targeting heavy rains Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Temperature remains above-average.
- Dry weather on Friday before additional rain with crossing low
pressure this weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Brief surface high pressure will favor dry conditions on Friday,
though with cooler temperatures than Thursday.
Ensembles continue to show high probability for another low
pressure system crossing the area Saturday into Sunday. However,
discrepancies in the strength of this system continues for now.
Depending on the strength and track of this system, mixed
precipitation could again impact the region for the weekend.
Near seasonal temperatures return Friday, with warming
temperatures for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of IFR to MVFR fog will continue this morning, especially
at FKL and DUJ. The fog will gradually dissipate as mixing and
surface heating occurs this morning. Otherwise, expect mid level
clouds today in warm advection ahead of an approaching cold
front. SW wind will also increase with a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the front, with a few gusts around 20kt.
Deterioration to MVFR cigs is expected as the cold front
crosses overnight. Patchy areas of light rain are also possible
with FROPA, though deep layer moisture is lacking with the
front.
Outlook...
VFR briefly returns Tuesday before restrictions return during
the midweek period with rain. Restrictions and a wintry mix of
precipitation is expected Wednesday with a crossing warm front.
Any mix will change to rain by Thursday, with restrictions
continuing. VFR returns Friday under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...WM/Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/88
AVIATION...WM
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Feb 3, 7:28 AM EST---------------
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