ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 30, 9:03 AM EST869
FXUS61 KILN 301403
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
903 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off to the east today with low
pressure approaching from the the Southern Plains moving into
the Ohio Valley overnight. Widespread rain associated with this
system will develop this afternoon through tonight and then
diminish on Friday as a cold front pushes through the area. Mild
temperatures through the end of the week briefly drop on
Saturday before above normal temperatures and dry conditions
develop for the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure shifts east of the Ohio Valley this morning as a warm
front lifts into the region east of a low in the Mississippi River
Valley. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the 40s and lower 50s
this afternoon on warm southerly flow. Moisture and cloud cover will
also increase through the day. Rain chances arrive late this
afternoon and early this evening when a LLJ moves in from the
southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A southern stream mid level low to eject northeast from the
Southern Plains int the Mid MS Valley overnight and then open up
and track thru the Ohio Valley Friday. Widespread rainfall is
expected tonight in response to favorable moisture transport
associated with a 55-65 KT low level jet. The most favorable
moisture and lift occurs along and south of the Ohio River -
where ensemble mean solutions indicate 1.25 to 1.5 inches of
rainfall by Friday morning. While the flooding potential is
not overly concerning, some nuisance issues are possible where
the heaviest rainfall axis sets up. Mild temperatures do not
drop off much overnight with lows from the the upper 30s north
to the lower/middle 40s south.
The mid level low opens up as it tracks east across the region
on Friday. An associated surface low will track across northern
Indiana and northern Ohio with a cold front beginning to move
into the area late in the day. Rain will continue into Friday
morning but then will begin to taper off - with a threat
continuing thru the day. On the warm side of the system - highs
to range from the lower 50s northwest to around 60 south of the
Ohio River.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front and upper level disturbance will keep precipitation
chances in the forecast through Friday night. With colder air
moving in for the overnight hours, expect rain to transition over in
some spots to light snow. Dry conditions are expected to return by
Saturday.
There is not a clear signal for precipitation from Saturday through
Tuesday. Due to this went close to the NBM and went with a dry
forecast during this time. A wide range in temperatures are
expected during this time with high temperatures ranging from the
30s to 60s across the region during this time. Low temperatures
will also be quite variable, ranging from the 20s to 40s.
Tuesday night through the remainder of the long term a system moves
across the region. There is quite a bit of uncertainty and
variability with temperatures and subsequently precipitation type
with this system. Due to variability, closely followed the NBM
temperatures. Tried to introduce some mixed precipitation across
portions of the region with system given temperatures in the upper
20s to lower 30s at times.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected this morning into the afternoon. Surface
high pressure over the area will slide off to the east this
morning. Mid and high level clouds increase through the afternoon
with light southerly winds gradually increasing toward 10 kts.
Moisture increases from the southwest ahead of approaching low
pressure. Ceilings to lower to MVFR along with the potential
for rain. MVFR Ceilings and visibilities occur at CVG/LUK around
21Z, before spreading northward across the rest of the sites
thru 00Z. Ceilings and visibilities drop to IFR restrictions
after 00Z in widespread rain. A period of LLWS is possible
after 08Z at KCVG and KLUK.
South winds at 10 kts or less today back more southeasterly
tonight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 30, 9:03 AM EST---------------
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