ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 30, 1:01 AM EST511
FXUS61 KILN 300601
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
101 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring widespread soaking rain through Friday
morning ahead of a cold front. Temperatures briefly drop on Saturday
before above average temperatures and dry conditions develop for the
start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Evening update...
No major changes this evening as the surface high pressure
continues to build in from the south. 00Z ILN RAOB observed
plentiful dry air throughout the troposphere, confirming the
reason for clear skies this evening and into the overnight.
Previous discussion...
High pressure moves across the Ohio Valley this evening into
tonight. Clear skies and calm winds support favorable conditions
for radiational cooling and lows in the 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure quickly moves east on Thursday when a warm
front associated with a deepening low to the west lifts into the
Ohio Valley. Precipitation chances increase into the afternoon and
evening hours when the better moisture and forcing start to develop
over the area. Clouds build through the day and highs reach up into
the middle 40s to lower 50s and persistent southerly flow.
Widespread rainfall is anticipated Thursday evening through Thursday
night when the aforementioned warn front progresses north. WAA
advection persists all night and forcing will be enhanced by a LLJ
east of the low in the Mississippi River Valley. This enhanced
forcing overlaps anomalously high PWATs. Rainfall totals by Friday
morning are likely to exceed an inch for locations south of I-70
with locally high amounts possible especially along and south of the
Ohio River. While the flooding potential is not overly concerning,
some nuisance issues are possible where the heaviest rainfall axis
sets up.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level low over the mid Mississippi Valley at the beginning of
the period will open up as it tracks east across the region on
Friday. Associated surface low will move across northern parts of
Indiana and Ohio. So rain from Thursday night will continue into
Friday morning but then taper off but not completely diminish. The
region will be in the warm sector which will allow temperatures to
rise into the 50s areawide with 60 not out of the question in
northern Kentucky.
Cold front trailing the surface low will slide through the area on
Friday night. Some additional light rain will be possible until this
passes. This will bring a brief cool down for the first half of the
weekend, but after a warm front lifts north late Saturday night into
Sunday morning temperatures will jump back into the 50s.
It will remain mild into Monday when the next cold front moves
through the region. Moisture looks quite limited so expect this to
come through dry. Behind the front, cooler readings will occur,
although still a bit above normal. There is some potential for rain
on Wednesday, moreso in southern counties, with a system tracking
south of the area. But there is a fair bit of uncertainty about that
system, so it remains to be seen how that evolves.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected this morning into the afternoon. Surface
high pressure over the area will slide off to the east this
morning. Mid and high level clouds increase through the
afternoon with light southerly winds gradually increasing toward
10 kts.
Moisture increases from the southwest ahead of approaching low
pressure. Ceilings to lower to MVFR along with the potential
for rain. MVFR Ceilings and visibilities occur at CVG/LUK around
21Z, before spreading northward across the rest of the sites
thru 00Z. Ceilings and visibilities drop to IFR restrictions
after 00Z.
South winds at 10 kts or less today back more southeasterly
tonight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 30, 1:01 AM EST---------------
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