BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 7:22 PM EST716
FXUS61 KBOX 290022
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
722 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper system will bring light snow accumulations to our
region late tonight, followed by another cold front Wednesday
afternoon that could produce a round of scattered snow squalls.
Frigid and gusty Wednesday night into Thursday with wind chills
as low as 10 below across interior Southern New England, but
then rebounds rather quickly Thursday night into Friday.
Monitoring a storm system which could bring the potential for
wintry mixed precipitation to Southern New England Friday into
Friday night, but the details are still uncertain. Turning drier
with a return to below normal temperatures this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Attention now turns to a clipper system passing mainly across
northern New England. Currently thinking the majority of the
snowfall is over by 5 AM, with a few lingering snow showers
towards northern MA. The trend of the guidance has been to trend
slightly north, at least by tightening the snowfall gradient
south of the Mass Pike into RI and northern CT. That said,
overall snowfall forecast remained consistent with prior
forecasts. Did make a little tweak to the snowfall towards the
east slopes of the Berkshires. Anticipating a little orographic
enhancement. So despite the progressive nature of this storm,
issued a Winter Weather Advisory towards NW MA for 3-5 inches of
snow. The heaviest snowfall rates still appear to be between
midnight and 3 AM.
With clouds overhead most of tonight, that should put the brakes
on any radiational cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A trailing mid level shortwave passes across our region into the
afternoon. This should renew the treat for brief snow showers
and isolated snow squalls, along with gusty winds. Low level
lapse rates are still rather steep tomorrow. Much will come down
to how warm we can get over land to maximize the momentum
transfer. Much different conditions over the water, where
diabatic heating from the ocean should just about guarantee
decent mixing. Not as much of a pressure rise/fall couplet, so
have held of on any wind headlines for now. It will be close, so
the next shift can reevaluate that need.
Becoming drier and colder Wednesday night behind another cold
front.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Frigid Wed night/Thurs with gusty northwest winds. Wind chills
5 to 10 below zero for interior Southern New England Wed
night.
* Rain likely with potential for some high elevation wintry
precipitation on Fri into Fri night.
* Drying out for next week but with another shot of colder than
normal temps.
Thursday through Friday night...
A broad ridge of high pressure moves overhead on Thursday and
Thursday night and this will initially keep winds gusty during
the first part of the day on Thursday as the pressure gradient
between it and the low over the maritimes remains tight. By
later Thursday things relax and winds will come down. Even so,
the breezy winds will make highs in the upper 20s feel more like
the teens on Thursday.
The most active period of the extended forecast will be Friday
and Friday night as a positively tilted mid level trough moves
from the Ohio Valley into New England while its surface
reflection crosses southern New England Friday night, deepening
over the Gulf of Maine on Saturday. Depending on the exact track
of this frontal system it places portions of SNE within the warm
sector with warm advection precip overspreading from south to
north on Friday. There remains a decent amount of uncertainty as
to any potentially wintry mix or snow, most likely to occur in
the high elevations of the interior where the subfreezing air
may hold on despite the warm SW flow. At this point, not
expecting an impactful winter storm, but it is in the realm of
possibility that winter weather potential increases as we
approach if the track of the low shifts south. Probabilities of
3 inches of snow are essentially nil in ensemble guidance, but
for 1 inch they range anywhere from 20% to 50% for the
Berkshires. Stay tuned.
The weekend into early next week...
The temperature roller coaster continues with Friday's mid 40s
followed by highs in the 20s and 30s on Saturday behind the cold
front. This as high pressure moves overhead through at least
early Sunday. Beyond that attention shifts to our next potential
bout of mixed precipitation with a shortwave passing through
around late Sunday/Monday. Beyond that uncertainty increases but
another anomalous warm up is likely to start next week.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00Z: High Confidence.
VFR with gusty W winds diminishing after sunset.
Tonight: Moderate confidence.
A clipper system will bring light steady snowfall and MVFR CIGS
to the region. Snow expected to arrive from west to east between
02-06z, and move offshore between 09-12z. Low chance for IFR
CIGS for BOS and BED overnight if an onshore wind develops.
Tomorrow: High Confidence
Mainly VFR, but scattered snow showers/squalls are possible
again, but confidence on timing is low at this time. Gusty W
winds redevelop for late morning into the afternoon. Should
diminish with sunset.
Tomorrow Night: High Confidence.
KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF due to snowfall timing
and intensity. Terminal is along the southern edge of the
snowfall.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Mainly VFR. Low risk for a period of light snow overnight.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely, chance SN.
Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SN.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
High Confidence.
Gusty winds briefly diminish overnight, before increasing again
Wednesday as colder air moves over the waters. Based on latest
reports, decided to drop the Gale Warnings a little early. Could
still see some gusts up to 30 kt for another hour or two, but
winds were diminishing rapidly. Shifting focus to the next wind
event tomorrow. Mainly gales across the southern New England
coastal waters, with some Small Craft Advisories for some of the
nearshore waters. Am a little concerned about being too light
on the forecast for Massachusetts Bay and Cape Cod Bay. Those
could be upgraded to Gale Warnings overnight if a stronger wind
signature emerges.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.
Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain likely.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of
snow.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MAZ002-008.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ231-251.
Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ232>234.
Gale Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
ANZ236.
Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ250-254.
Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Belk/BW
MARINE...Belk/BW
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 7:22 PM EST----------------
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