IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 10:22 AM EST261
FXUS63 KIWX 271522
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1022 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Today/Tonight - Chance for light snow early. Little if any
accumulation.
- Tuesday through Thursday - Mild & mainly dry. Highs mostly in
the 40s.
- Friday through Monday - Seasonably mild most days with highs
in the 30s to mid 40s.
- Accumulating snow possible Friday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
Temperatures slowly warming this morning after a chilly start in
the teens for most areas. Wind gusts have yet to materialize in
many spots, but should become more of a reality as we climb
through the 30s and closer to freezing. A few locations across
lower MI showing some gusts of 25 to 32 kts with even higher
gusts across portions of the U.P. Model guidance has backed off
slightly on overall max wind gusts, justifying holding off on
any headlines for the time being. Will monitor obs in the coming
hours to see if headlines are warranted. Greatest area of
concern would likely be along the lakeshore counties as well as
along/north of US-6.
Only other item being monitored is temperatures as there is a
decent likihood of overachieving today with regards to highs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
A high zonal flow aloft will favor moderating temperatures
through this upcoming weekend into early next week. Seasonably
mild weather most days into the start of February can be
expected as surges of mild & dry air from the Plains reach
northern Indiana. These surges will allow highs to reach the 40s
most days which is a solid 10 degrees above normal. It will
feel especially mild given 7 days during the past 2 weeks were
at least 10 degrees below normal.
As for precipitation, a tranquil pattern will unfold into early
February with chances for precipitation limited to mainly early
tonight and Friday/Friday night. A weak upper trof with limited
saturation may bring some light snow early tonight. Few if any
weather impacts are expected. A better chance for accumulating
snow is expected Friday and especially Friday night. The GFS
(unlike the ECMWF) has been indicating (on 3 runs) a
deformation zone setting up over northern Indiana and northwest
Ohio where several inches of wet snow are possible in a
relatively narrow west to east band. For now, have been hesitant
to put too much confidence in this solution given the number of
days ahead before this pattern unfolds.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
VFR Conditions are expected at the TAF sites, with light snow
possible at KSBN overnight. Have a prob30 group for KSBN with
MVFR visibility, but confidence has waned enough since the 6z
update enough to remove KFWA's group. It appears there will be
enough dry air to keep any impactful snow chances extremely
limited. The main focus will be southwest winds gusting to 30 to
35 knots late this morning into the evening. Gusts up to 40
knots are possible, especially near KSBN where the pressure
gradient is tighter however not enough confidence to include at
this point. LLWS of 45 to 50 knots thanks to a strong LLJ
developing after 00z once we decouple, with gusts up to around
25 to 30 knots through the night.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 27, 10:22 AM EST---------------
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