IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 2:41 AM EST327
FXUS63 KIND 280741
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
241 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind gusts to 30 mph this afternoon through Wednesday
- Above average highs in the 40s to low 50s through the weekend
- Next chance for precipitation late Thursday into Saturday, rain
amounts over an inch likely
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 241 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
A stretch of mild weather is expected through the week as the
overall pattern undergoes a significant shift from the past few
weeks. Surface analysis over the Eastern CONUS features high
pressure along the Gulf coast with a progressive northern stream jet
across the Great Lakes with multiple surface lows tracking north of
the region. Indiana will be placed right in the middle of these two
regimes over the next few days resulting in mainly dry, yet breezy
and mild conditions.
Satellite imagery this morning shows a weak, moisture starved front
pushing southward through Indiana with mid to high clouds overhead.
A tight surface pressure gradient and the presence of the front has
kept west-southwesterly surface winds elevated overnight around 10-
15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at times. Winds and higher clouds have
also kept lows from falling much overnight with most locations still
above freezing at this hour. Expect lows to bottom out around
freezing later this morning, well above what guidance suggests.
While influence from high pressure keeps conditions dry, the tight
pressure gradient and an increasing low level jet pushing in from
the north today will keep conditions rather breezy. Short term
guidance indicates a 35-50 kt low level jet, on the southwest side of
a low in the northern Great Lakes, pushing into Indiana after 20z
this afternoon. Ample surface heating and steep low level lapse
rates will allow for higher gusts to mix down to the surface, so
expect increasing gusts to or exceeding 30 mph during the later
afternoon hours, persisting into the evening. If mixing ends up
deeper than what guidance suggests, the possibility if there for max
temperatures to exceed forecasted highs in the low to mid 40s.
Keeping low temperatures tonight above guidance in the mid to
potentially upper 30s as breezy conditions are expected to persist
into the overnight hours. Winds will largely be elevated due to the
tight gradient; however a 50 kt low level jet right above the
surface may allow for wind gusts to 20-25 mph continue late into the
night despite stable low level temperature profiles.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 241 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
Wednesday Through Friday.
The warming trend will continue Wednesday into Thursday with
persistent breezy conditions as surface pressure gradients remain
tight with central Indiana between a broad ridge across the Central
Plains and an exiting low pressure system across Southeast Canada.
Highs are expected to climb into the mid to upper 40s for Wednesday
with the potential for large portions of the forecast area to see
low 50s for Thursday.
The pattern then will begin to shift late Thursday into Friday as a
strong upper level low exits the Four Corners region and begins to
track to the northeast with a strong LLJ advecting additional warm
and moist air into the lower Ohio Valley by Thursday night. Models
continue to have a solid handle on the overall synoptic pattern with
details in the exact timing/strength of the low remaining uncertain.
Confidence is high in a widespread moderate to locally heavy rain
event beginning late Thursday through Friday with temperatures warm
enough to keep rain as the only precipitation type. Total rainfall
amounts of 1-1.5 inches look reasonable with the strong forcing
collocated with widespread moisture advection.
Saturday Through Monday.
Cooler but still above normal temperatures are then expected for the
weekend with a low end threat for a few snow showers on the backend
of the Friday system. Dry weather is likely for much if not all of
the weekend with only very low rain chances Sunday as another weak
system passes through the Great Lakes. Another weak cold front looks
likely towards the start of next week, but little to no forcing is
expected along the front which should keep conditions dry. Looking
beyond further into the work week the pattern looks to remain wetter
than normal with additional precipitation likely.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
Impacts:
- Winds from 230-270 degrees and gusts to near 25 knots through
09z
- SW winds increase again after 20z this afternoon
Discussion:
VMC expected to persist through the TAF period, main aviation
concern is gusty winds. A weak frontal boundary is currently pushing
through Central Indiana as seen on satellite imagery; however low
level dry air is keeping cigs above 5000ft agl. A tight pressure
gradient along the front has kept southwest winds elevated overnight
in the 10-15 kt range with gusts 20-25 kts at times. Gusts should
relax behind the front after 09z, but sustained winds will still
remain elevated at 6-11 kts.
Winds briefly become westerly from 260-280 deg during the morning
hours then become southwesterly from 230-250 deg later this
afternoon. An increasing low level jet in addition to steepening low
level lapse rates will result in winds 12-17 kts with gusts 20-30
kts after 20z. Winds may remain elevated through the overnight hours
tonight as well.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...CM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 28, 2:41 AM EST---------------
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