LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 21, 5:41 PM CST ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...905
FXUS64 KLIX 212341
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
541 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Plan to update after the top of the hour to remove more
counties/parishes from the Winter Storm Warning, likely all west
of a Slidell to Houma-Thibodaux line (but will keep lower sections
of coastal parishes).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 357 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
The precipitation portion of a historic winter storm for our CWA
will be winding down over the next few hours. Snowfall totals
across much of the CWA haven't been seen in at least 60 years, if
ever. Have cancelled the Winter Storm Warning in northern portions
of the CWA where precipitation has ended, and will remove
additional areas as radar dictates. That being said, even after
canceling the Warning, travel is extremely discouraged overnight
across the entire CWA. Headlines regarding cold weather will
remain in place tonight, and will likely be necessary again
tomorrow night.
With significant snowpack in place, guidance high temperatures
are way too high for tomorrow, and have generally used NBM 10th
percentile for tomorrow, and those could even be a degree or two
too warm. While we get close to full sunshine tomorrow, it may not
be enough to melt enough snow to improve travel.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 357 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Gradual moderation in temperatures, but won't reach climatologic
normals until Sunday. Southern stream shortwave will bring a
chance of rain to the area Sunday. Used NBM PoPs/Temps beyond
Thursday, but undercut NBM highs Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Visibilities/ceilings improving at most terminals, with all
terminals likely VFR by 06z, if not sooner. Temperatures well
below freezing overnight won't improve runway conditions at all
until perhaps midday Wednesday. Winds will gradually diminish
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Will continue Marine headlines that were in place this evening,
but carry Small Craft Advisory for all waters from midnight to 6
AM CST. Beyond that point, winds should start diminishing, and
don't anticipate advisory level conditions until perhaps Sunday,
if then.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 11 34 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 11 34 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 13 34 20 45 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 21 32 26 41 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 14 34 21 44 / 20 0 0 0
PQL 14 34 19 46 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for LAZ046-
056>060-064>070-076>080-082-084>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-557.
Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ550-552-555-570-
572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Wednesday
for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-577.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MSZ077-
083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-557.
Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ552-555-570-572-
575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Wednesday
for GMZ552-555-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 21, 5:41 PM CST ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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