JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 9:52 PM EST505
FXUS63 KJKL 270252
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
952 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very light snow accumulations are possible tonight across parts
of eastern and southeastern Kentucky, particularly south of the
Cumberland Pkwy/Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY Highway 80 corridor.
- Temperatures should remain near, if not a few degrees above,
normal for most of the next week.
- A system will approach the area towards the end of the long-
term forecast period, but confidence in timing remains low. Rain
is currently the favored precipitation type.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
Temps are running slightly warmer than was forecast in the
southern portion of the area this evening, and latest guidance
suggests that trend will continue tonight. This would make it even
more difficult to accumulate snow where the greatest precip is
forecast. This is reflected in the updated forecast, but changes
are minor in the big scheme of things.
UPDATE Issued at 610 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
Based on obs, have allowed for a faster increase in clouds early
this evening. Have also included a slightly faster drop in temps
in eastern valleys early this evening. However, this should be
tempered by clouds during the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 311 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
A southwest-northeast oriented weak cold front continues to track
southeast into eastern and southern Kentucky this afternoon.
Meanwhile, a positively-tilted upper disturbance continues to dive
east and southeast toward the area. Models continue to indicate an
increasing trend for precipitation to develop for several hours
during the overnight as the upper disturbance reinvigorates the weak
cold front, and may bring some accumulating snow to primarily areas
south of KY-80 and the Hal Rogers Parkway. Temperatures will be
marginal during this time, with lower-30s expected, so higher
elevations have better chances (close to 90 percent) to see any
accumulating snow compared to valley bottoms (closer to 40 percent)
along the TN and VA border counties extending from Wayne County to
far southern Pike County. Despite good forcing and sufficient
moisture, the short duration of the precipitation would limit snow
accumulations to one-half inch or less even at higher elevations.
Best timing for accumulating snow is indicated between 05z and 10z
tonight, or midnight to 5 AM, though some models, particularly the
12z GFS, show light precipitation lingering into the late morning
hours in the vicinity of the Pine Mountain and Black Mountain areas.
The disturbance and cold front will exit the area by midday Monday,
with any cold advection becoming increasingly limited with time to
the far southeast during the daytime hours Monday, with low-level
clouds lingering longest into the mid- to late afternoon hours
towards Harlan, Bell, and Letcher counties. Clear skies are expected
by Monday evening with weak yet increasing Q-G warm advection, which
is a good recipe for large ridge/valley temperature splits. Cloud
cover impinging from the north during the overnight may limit these
ridge/valley splits toward the Interstate 64 corridor.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
There remains a fair amount of uncertainty with the system later
this week into the weekend. Some of the latest guidance wants to
speed this warm front lifting northward up from previous runs. The
model suites still seem to be struggling with the low ejecting
out of the Four Corners region. The increase in speed of the warm
front would be beneficial allowing temperatures to warm through
the evening and overnight Thursday permitting all locations to
rise above freezing before precipitation arrives.
That said, the period does begin dry and now we stand to remain dry
through Thursday. The temperatures will come in around average to
slightly above average, with highs climbing into the mid to upper
40s and eventually into the 50s for much of the area Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. The NBM is giving much of the area greater than
a 70 percent chance of climbing above 49 degrees for highs on
Wednesday. The clear and generally calm conditions seen Tuesday and
Wednesday night will lead to some ridge/valley temperature splits.
Wednesday the forecast soundings and most of the ensemble suites
show an uptick in winds as a result of decent mixing into the low
level jet and weak pressure gradient. Given the usually lower bias
on wind and wind gust from the NBM opted to lean toward some of the
raw model blends to better capture this potential. Overall we would
be looking at wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range and this would
mainly be in the late morning and afternoon on Wednesday.
Then all eyes turn toward the late week system. There remains some
uncertainty as mentioned above on the timing of this system. There
was some of the guidance that did come in a bit faster with the warm
front that is slated to lift northward into the Lower Ohio Valley
Thursday night into early Friday. The NBM also seems to be
capturing this temporal change in the model suites and pushes the
warm air and precipitation into the area Thursday evening and
night. The concern in this initial part of the forecast will be
the speed of the system. This as dewpoints are forecast to be in
the low to upper 20s Thursday afternoon suggests if this system
were to delay some we could see some of the valleys drop off below
freezing in the evening and this could lead to a small window of
freezing rain potential. Overall at this time this potential
outcome is quite small, but is something to monitor with a
overrunning situation such as this. Outside of this, we are
looking at rain from this system with afternoon highs getting into
the mid to upper 50s by the weekend if trends continue. However,
when looking at the forecast highs in this part of the period
there remains quite a bit of spread in the various model guidance.
In terms of rainfall, the latest NBM probabilities show that
there is around a 50 to 60 percent chance of seeing three quarters
of an inch or greater of rainfall in the 72 hour period ending
Sunday morning at 7 AM.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 610 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR conditions with ceilings of 4-8K ft AGL are expected to start
the period. A combination of light rain and light snow is forecast
to develop over mainly south central and southeast KY between
about 03-07Z, bringing largely MVFR conditions. The precip and
MVFR conditions should exit to the southeast overnight and early
Monday. That will leave dry weather and VFR conditions to finish
the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 26, 9:52 PM EST---------------
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