PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 5:33 AM EST018
FXUS61 KPBZ 251033 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
533 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds are expected today ahead of an approaching
disturbance. Snow chances will also return, generally north of
I-70. Some areas north of Pittsburgh could see an inch or two of
accumulation through early Sunday morning. Dry weather returns
Sunday night and Monday under weak high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing clouds in warm advection
- Snow chances increase this afternoon, especially north of PIT
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Update...
Increased cloud cover as mid level clouds were already
overspreading the region. No other changes for the early morning
update.
Previous discussion...
The latest surface analysis shows a ridge of high pressure
across the Upper Ohio Valley region. This should slide east
today as the next shortwave trough approaches. Mid level clouds
will initially increase this morning in warm advection ahead of
the trough, with snow chances increasing through the afternoon
as moisture and vorticity advection/ascent increase. A 40-45kt
jet at 850mb is also progged to cross the region this afternoon,
adding some additional ascent.
Kept POPs in the chance range generally south of Route 422, with
likely to the north, where better moisture is progged. Expecting
an inch or less of snow north of Rt 422 by the end of the day,
with little accumulation to the south. Temperatures are expected
to be warmer today, though still around 5 degrees below average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow chances continue tonight with a cold front
- Dry under weak high pressure Sunday night and Monday
- Snow showers return Monday night and Tuesday with a cold front
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Snow will continue to be likely north of Rt 422 this evening
(with lower chances south) as the initial shortwave completes
its passage. A surface cold front will follow overnight, with
scattered snow showers across the region. Moisture in the
dendritic zone will be limited with the front, though enough
convergence should result in at least scattered snow showers
overnight. Total accumulation of 1-2 inches is expected near and
north of Rt 422, with lesser amounts to the south.
A few snow showers will remain possible Sunday, though the
boundary layer flow is progged to be westerly, which is less
than ideal for lake or terrain enhanced snow. Dry weather should
return Sunday night and Monday as a weak surface ridge builds
under a crossing upper trough.
Another cold front is expected to drop south across
Ontario/Great Lakes region Monday night, crossing the Upper Ohio
Valley region on Tuesday. Scattered snow showers are expected to
return with the approach and passage of the front. Currently,
the best upper level ascent is progged to stay north of the
area, through strong cold advection and steepening lapse rates
should result in snow showers developing.
Overall, temperatures are expected to be more seasonable through
most of the period, though still a few degrees below average.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Periodic snow chances through mid week
- Generally dry by Friday
- Near to above average temperatures through Wednesday, with
cold returning by Thursday
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a trough will persist across the
eastern CONUS through Thursday, before beginning to shift
eastward on Friday. Individual shortwaves rotating through the
trough will keep scattered snow showers in the forecast through
at least Wednesday night, with only slight chance POPs by
Thursday.
Models indicate another push of cold air will drop south across
the region Wednesday night through Thursday night, with
temperatures again 10 to 15 degrees below average. Warm
advection should begin on Friday as the trough begins to shift
eastward, with moderating temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High clouds stream in from the west through daybreak Saturday,
then gradually lowering and thickening throughout the day.
Scattered snow showers develop north of PIT this afternoon,
impacting mainly just FKL and DUJ. The highest confidence in
restrictions this TAF period are north of PIT under those snow
showers, where MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities will be
possible. Confidence is lower in snow showers impacting
terminals farther south, with a 30% chance for snow showers at
BVI/PIT/AGC/LBE. Included PROB30s for MVFR visibilities at
those terminals to reflect this potential. Farther south and
west (ZZV/HLG/MGW), chances are low for even just a passing snow
shower, so left mention of restrictions out of the TAFs at
those terminals. Widespread MVFR ceilings develop at all
terminals (except perhaps ZZV) just beyond the current TAF
period early Sunday morning.
Winds increase out of the southwest after sunrise this morning
and remain breezy through this afternoon, with gusts to 20-25
knots possible. A brief lull will be possible this evening
before winds pick back up again tonight into Sunday.
Outlook...
Snow showers and breezy west winds are expected on Sunday with
some restrictions possible due to lingering stratocumulus. VFR
conditions are expected to return by Monday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak/Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 25, 5:33 AM EST---------------
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