LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 12:47 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...917
FXUS63 KLMK 240547
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1247 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Flurries and brief, isolated snow showers over southeast Indiana
and the northern Bluegrass this evening as a cold front moves
through the region.
* Milder temperatures this weekend into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
Flurries and isolated light snow showers are ongoing, mainly across
the northern and northeastern parts of the forecast area. This
activity is battling some dry air in the low levels. However, a
notable dusting has occurred and caused slick conditions in Madison,
IN. Decided to issue a Special Weather Statement in coordination
with WFOs IND, ILN, and JKL. This is just for the NE CWA, but even
in these areas, the accumulation potential is minimal. A very spotty
dusting remains possible through the late evening hours. Any
accumulation may lead to slick roads this evening and overnight,
especially untreated surfaces. Sfc cold front is bisecting the CWA
now, and temperatures will quickly plummet through the remainder of
the evening. Any areas that see light snow could have some slick
spots tonight with temperatures dropping into the teens by early
Friday morning.
Wind chills will range through the single digits and teens Friday
morning, so have the heavy coat, gloves, and hat ready to go for
another cold morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 350 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
Currently, an upper trough is dropping south along the Rockies
before turning east near New Mexico, cutting across the Gulf Coast
States, and flowing off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a
southwest to northeast oriented cold front is causing winds to veer
towards the northwest, resulting in cooler air being advected into
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This front has already
generated some isolated to scattered flurries over parts of the
Lower Ohio Valley, and as we head through the evening hours,
flurries and some heavier snow showers are expected. Model soundings
do show low level moistures with some near surface instability, but
as the DGZ begins to get saturated, the column becomes very dry at
an inversion. This should limit the strength of any snow shower, but
it's possible isolated parts of southeast Indiana and the northern
Bluegrass could see 0.2-0.3" of snow, but believe chances remain
fairly low overall.
Tonight, snow showers will come to an end early in the night as they
push off to the east, but with temperatures quickly dropping below
freezing and bottoming out in the teens in many places, untreated
roads could once again cause some issues for motorists.
Tomorrow, as the surface high behind the cold front, drops southeast
from the Plains towards the Texas Gulf Coast, cold air advection
will ease as winds begin to back towards the south during the
afternoon hours. The surface high along with mild upper ridging
moving back into the area will help skies to clear during the second
half of the day. High temperatures are expected to recover back to
the mid 20s to low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
Friday Night through Sunday Night...
Upper trough axis is forecast to be east of the region by Friday
night with a broad northwest flow aloft giving way to more of a
zonal flow as we head into Saturday. Lows Friday night will be cold
with readings in the upper single digits to the lower teens in the
Bluegrass region, elsewhere lows of 15-20 are expected. Highs on
Saturday will be milder with readings in the 40-45 degree range
across southern IN and northern Kentucky. Southern KY should see
readings in the 45-50 degree range. Lows Saturday night look to
cool into the 25-30 degree range.
For Sunday and Sunday night, the afternoon guidance has continued to
shift the precipitation threat for the Sunday period further south.
The overall forecast has continued to trend drier and only contains
a slight chance of some rain/snow across extreme far southern KY
late Sunday night. Should future trends continue, a dry forecast
may be required in subsequent forecasts. Highs on Sunday will be in
the 43-48 degree range with overnight lows in the upper 20s to the
lower 30s.
Monday through Thursday...
Moving into the new work week, a split flow upper level pattern is
expected to develop over the weekend with a cut off low over
southern California with a confluent flow downstream across the
eastern US. Models are still trying to dig an upper trough axis
across the northeastern US which would yield more of a northwest
flow pattern aloft over the Ohio Valley. The lack of disturbances
within this flow regime will result in a dry forecast for the area
for much of the period. By mid-late week, the upper level low is
forecast to eject out of the southwest and eventually work eastward.
The flow here looks to remain rather blocky (Rex block pattern)
setting up with the ejecting wave possibly closing off across the
Plains and sending an occluding frontal boundary into the region by
Thursday. The current forecast will feature some low chance PoPs in
the forecast by Thursday, though the overall confidence here remains
below average, given that models do not handle split flow patterns
well.
As for temperatures, Monday's highs will warm into the 44-49 degree
range with overnight lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Milder
weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper
40s to the lower 50s. Highs Thursday could be tempered by clouds
and associated precip, but readings look to warm into the 45-50
degree range here.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025
Dealing with some lower ceilings moving into the region behind this
past evening's cold front. Starting to see some MVFR obs show up,
and given satellite trends, expect this could persist for several
hours this morning. In addition to occasional MVFR ceilings looks
for a steady NW wind, gradually slackening through the night. May
also see a few flurries with these MVFR ceilings overnight, however
don't expect vis to drop much, if at all, so will neglect to mention
unless we see it on the ob.
As we move past sunrise, looking for ceilings to improve back to VFR
as drier air moves into the area. In addition, winds will back to a
more steady W component, and then a light S or SSW component by
evening. VFR prevails past late morning or midday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 12:47 AM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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