CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 3:48 AM EST406
FXUS61 KCLE 240848
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
348 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge affects our region through daybreak this
Saturday as the axis of the ridge moves from near the Upper
Mississippi Valley to northeastern New York and the Mid-Atlantic
region. The ridge then exits eastward before a cold front sweeps
eastward through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania
Saturday night. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the
western Great Lakes and vicinity through this Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aloft, a weak shortwave trough approaching from the Upper Great
Lakes will sweep SE'ward across the Lake Erie region and Upper
OH Valley late this afternoon through evening. Behind the
trough, a shortwave ridge will traverse our region generally
from west to east this evening through daybreak Saturday
morning. At the surface, a ridge continues to impact our region
as the ridge axis moves from near the Upper MS Valley toward
northeastern NY and the central Appalachians by daybreak
Saturday. This weather pattern evolution at the surface and
aloft will allow low-level WAA to strengthen slowly amidst
partly to mostly cloudy sky. This afternoon's highs are expected
to reach the mid teens to lower 20's in NW PA and the upper
teens to lower 20's in northern OH. Tonight's lows are expected
to reach mainly the 5F to 15F range around midnight before
readings moderate slightly by daybreak Saturday.
Primarily fair weather is expected through daybreak
Saturday as a lowering and stabilizing subsidence inversion
accompanies the ridge at the surface and aloft. However, as 850
mb temperatures moderate from near -18C to -16C over/downwind of
~0C Lake Erie, pockets of ice-free waters persist, and lake-
induced equilibrium levels lower from near 7kft to near 3kft
above the lake in response to the lowering subsidence inversion
and synoptic low-level dry air advection, periodic light lake-
effect snow (LES) showers are possible over/downwind of Lake
Erie. These LES showers remain possible in/near portions of our
snowbelt counties in NE OH and NW PA through this early evening
as mean low-level flow backs from WNW'erly toward SW'erly,
which will cause lake-effect stratocumuli and any associated
snow to shift N'ward and E'ward with time. Any fresh LES
accumulations are expected to be one inch or less in our CWA.
On Saturday, the ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward as
a surface trough overspreads our region from the Upper Midwest
and western Great Lakes, and the parent shortwave trough
approaches from the north-central United States and vicinity.
This weather pattern evolution will allow low-level WAA to
persist in our CWA. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the
mid 20's to lower 30's in NW PA and the upper 20's to lower 30's
in northern OH. Moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave
trough axis should allow periods of snow to traverse our region
generally from west to east between roughly daybreak and
nightfall. This snow will primarily be light, but some model
sounding data indicate moderately-strong isentropic ascent may
be maximized at a cloud temperature of ~-11C at times and yield
brief bursts of moderate snow. Fresh snow accumulations of a
coating to two inches are expected on Saturday. Note: Based on
our latest air temperature and wind forecast, minimum wind
chills are expected to be near 0F to -5F this morning and
Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave will be traversing the Great Lakes Saturday night into
Sunday ahead of a surface cold front that will move through. There
will be some on going lake effect snow showers across the primary
snowbelt as the flow will be generally out of the west through the
beginning of the weekend. The early morning hours on Sunday will
have the highest chance for the lake effect snow showers before
drier air moves into the low to mid levels as the 925mb ridge pushes
across the Ohio Valley. Snow totals will be fairly low, even with
the frontal passage as most of the area will be lacking the
necessary moisture. Most of the snowbelt should see around 1-3
inches in accumulation with higher totals in NW PA and in the higher
elevations. The aforementioned ridge and associated surface high
pressure will move into the region during the day on Sunday ending
the chance of snow showers by that evening. High pressure will
remain across the mid Missouri Valley and Tennessee Valley on Monday
keeping the area dry for most of the day. A low pressure system
moving into the southern portion of the Hudson Bay will bring
chances of snow showers back to the snowbelt late on Monday. Winds
will start to pick up ahead of this next system with southwest winds
gusting to around 30 mph and possibly up to 40 mph.
Temperatures will warm throughout the weekend into Monday being
influenced by the high pressure. Highs on Sunday will be in the
upper 20s and low 30s with Monday seeing temperatures just above
freezing for most of the region. Lows will stay around the upper
teens and low 20s through the weekend. Winds chills will be a factor
Monday morning with the gusty winds dropping the wind chill down
into the low single digits.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday will bring the aforementioned low pressure system and
associated cold front across the region with increased chances of
snow showers for most of the region. The upper level trough will be
fairly slow moving resulting in an extended period of lake effect
snow showers for most of the snow belt. Not expecting a lot of
accumulation at this time, but with the persistence of the system,
will have to monitor it. During the middle of the week, a few of the
models are showing a clipper system move through the Great Lakes
region, through there are still some discrepancies among them such
as timing, thought it might be worth a mention.
Temperatures Tuesday will continue the trend of staying around and
above freezing with highs in the mid 30s. Through the middle of the
week behind the cold front temperatures will drop slightly with
highs being in the mid to upper 20s. Lows will be in the teens for
most of the week while dropping a bit towards the end.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft is expected through 06Z/Sat. A weak
disturbance will advance E'ward across our area through
~03Z/Sat. Thereafter, a ridge builds from the western Great
Lakes and vicinity. At the surface, a ridge affects our region
as its axis moves from near the Upper MS Valley to near
northeastern NY and the central Appalachians. Our regional
surface winds trend around 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period
and will back gradually from W'erly to SW'erly.
Widespread low clouds with ceilings mainly in the 2kft to 3.5kft
AGL range are expected to scatter-out or dissipate generally
from west to east late Fri morning or during Fri afternoon.
Primarily fair weather is expected through 06Z/Sat. However,
light lake-effect snow showers (LES showers) streaming ESE'ward
from Lake Michigan will impact KTOL periodically through
~10Z/Fri, while light LES showers ending from WNW to ESE
downwind of Lake Erie are expected to impact portions of NE
OH/NW PA, including KCAK/KYNG, through ~10Z/Fri before
increasingly drier air overspreads our region generally from the
west. Visibility is expected to vary between VFR and MVFR in LES
showers.
Outlook...Periodic snow with non-VFR possible this Saturday
through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
With temperatures remaining below freezing for the next couple of
days, there will be favorable conditions for moderate ice growth
across the lake. Winds will continue to be out of the west to
southwest at 10 to 15 knots, which will cause ice to drift easterly
and could close shipping channels on Lake Erie.
Winds will increase on Saturday to 15 to 25 knots ahead of a surface
cold front and will remain westerly through the weekend. On Monday,
winds will begin to increase and areas from the central basin
eastward could see winds up to 30 knots through late Monday. Winds
have been trending upwards during the period, so will need to
continue to monitor for the potential for gales in the previously
mentioned areas. Winds will continue to decrease through Tuesday to
15 to 20 knots out of the west.
Small Craft Advisory issuance remains suspended until further notice
for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Ripley, NY due to extensive
ice cover.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM...Kennedy
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Kennedy
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 24, 3:48 AM EST---------------
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