JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 4:03 PM EST096
FXUS63 KJKL 222103
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
403 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures gradually moderate back toward normal by this
weekend.
- The next chance for rain/snow will be Sunday into Monday,
however there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this
system.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM EST WED JAN 22 2025
High clouds which are passing over are fairly thin, and the sky
cover forecast for this afternoon has been reduced slightly.
UPDATE Issued at 957 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
Although still near zero in some locations, temperatures and
apparent temperatures are warming above the advisory level. The Cold
Weather Advisory will be allowed to expire at 10 AM.
UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
Temperatures have continued to settle lower over the last couple
of hours. The Bath County Kentucky Mesonet site 3 miles south of
Owingsville continues to have the coldest reliable reading, which
was -13.4F as of this update's issuance. Elsewhere, JKL continues
to flirt with the daily record low -- temperatures are at 0F
which is a tie of the record set in 2014. The latest observed
temperatures were blended into the hourly forecast; the forecast
is on track otherwise.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
Starlit skies and bitterly cold temperatures prevail across most of
eastern Kentucky this morning. The only exception to the clear skies
is right along the Kentucky/Virginia border where low clouds have
seemingly become stuck along the upslope side of Pine,
Cumberland, and Black Mountains. In these cloudier spots,
temperatures range from 0 to 10F. Elsewhere, most thermometers are
in the 0 to -10F range. Our coldest reliable automated observation
is the Bath County Kentucky Mesonet site 3 miles south of
Owingsville which has been as low as -12.0F as of the short-term
AFD issuance. A few personal weather stations in Fleming, Bath,
and Morgan Counties have been as low as -12F/-13F but the accuracy
of those observations is not known. The latest surface analysis
shows an elongated surface high over the region with an ~1035mb
center just north of Huntington, WV. Aloft, the axis of a deep
500H longwave trough is located east of us from the Eastern Canada
down to the Central Gulf of Mexico. Strong height rises on the
order of 150+m have been observed in the last 12 hours over the
Lower Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, another fairly potent 500H shortwave
trough is diving into the Northern Plains along the western
periphery of the longwave trough. This feature is supporting a
weak ~1006 mb clipper low currently centered over Lake of the
Woods, MN.
An arctic chill will linger over eastern Kentucky this morning as
high pressure crests over the CWA through sunrise. Expect
temperatures to dip at least a couple more degrees at most
locations between now and morning light. This will put
temperatures near record territory at the climate sites -- the
daily record low at KJKL is 0F set in 2014 and -7F at LOZ set in
1961. After sunrise, the surface high pressure ridge will shift
to our east allowing light southerly flow to set up and begin
advecting warmer air back northward into Kentucky. Models are in
good agreement showing an increase in mid and high cloud cover
with some weak warm isentropic ascent. In spite of the cloud
cover, filtered sunshine and the incoming "warmer" air mass should
support afternoon high temperatures in the lower 20s north of
I-64 to around 30F in valleys near the Tennessee border.
The advection eases tonight with just partly cloudy skies overnight.
While there will be a bit more of a pressure gradient as the clipper
low moves into the northern Great Lakes, sheltered valleys,
especially east of the Escarpment, should still be able to
decouple, leading to a relatively pronounced ridge-valley
temperature split. Look for lows ranging from the single digits in
the sheltered valleys to the mid and upper teens in the thermal
belts and in open areas that remain mixed.
As the clipper low passes from Lake Huron into Quebec on Thursday,
another surge of warm air advection across the Ohio Valley and
sunny to mostly sunny skies should support temperatures rising
into the 30s at elevations below 3,000 feet. Clouds will increase
late in the day as the clipper low's cold front approaches from
the northwest. Flurries and even a few snow showers could reach
the I-64 corridor by around sunset.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM EST WED JAN 22 2025
Overall it's a quiet extended period. Temperatures will continue to
moderate warmer into the weekend, first as high pressure takes hold
Friday, including clearing skies, followed by SW return flow
Saturday and Sunday as it exits to our east. This pattern will also
be accompanied by the reduction of the strong arctic airmass aloft
and NW flow by the weekend, with rising heights and more zonal flow.
By Sunday afternoon, the pattern begins to shift, however. A very
strong upper level and surface low moving across James Bay will
bring a sharp trough across much of the eastern Conus. This system
will continue to track eastward throughout the day Monday, with a
cold front extending southward towards the Ohio Valley and the
Commonwealth. Meanwhile, another low pressure system will be forming
across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast Sunday night, making it's
way across the Deep South through the day Monday. There is an
argument that these two systems may be tied together by the above-
mentioned frontal boundary, which could be the epicenter for lift
and precipitation. However, there has been a lot of uncertainty in
the models leading up to this point, and the uncertainty seems to
persist into this forecast package. The ECMWF keeps these as two
separate systems, one northern stream, one southern stream, with no
moisture from either one making it into the Commonwealth from Sunday
through Monday (despite the potential for a weak frontal passage).
Meanwhile, the GFS shows precipitation developing along the boundary
and impacting a large portion of the CWA late Sunday night into the
first part of Monday. Do want to note that despite the persistence
in the GFS, it actually has trended down a bit in state and CWA
coverage compared to the last couple of days, now more focused
across the far southeast portion of the state. The NBM, therefore,
has also followed suit with it's pops, having them enter later (late
Sunday) and exit sooner (Monday morning through mid-day), and
possibly not impacting all of the CWA. The NBM is also only showing
chance pops, likely a result of splitting the difference between the
dry and wet model solutions. All this to say, this forecast is still
highly uncertain.
Based on the current forecast and trends, continued SW flow at the
surface during this period (despite the potential boundary passage),
will keep temperatures fairly steady state Sunday and Monday, with
daytime highs generally in the upper 30s and low 40s, and lows in
the 20s. If precip moves in during the afternoon Sunday, it should
start out as rain, then transition to snow overnight as temps drop
back below freezing, then above freezing once more by the time it
tapers off Monday. Overall, as the NBM and WPC has trended down on
qpf and pops, so too has the potential snow amounts, with most
overnight totals under half an inch. Expect these amounts to
continue to fluctuate, as models, hopefully, come into a better
agreement soon.
A strong area of high pressure will overtake the state for the
second half of the day Monday, continuing through the end of the
forecast period, Tuesday and Wednesday. Surface winds will remain
out of the SW during this time according to the NBM - however, the
long-range models both agree on a split flow aloft, with western
Canadian air advecting SE towards the Ohio Valley, and more zonal to
southwest flow across the low half of the U.S. Kentucky seems to be
wedged between the two, which will prevent the best CAA if this
holds true. In fact, the NBM actually has a warming trend of
temperatures, with Wednesday reaching the low 50s in most locations.
Again, these models may shift some as we get closer to onset, and a
small shift southward in the upper level stream could result in
cooler temperatures across the Commonwealth.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
VFR conditions were observed at TAF issuance and are expected to
persist through tonight. There will be passing high clouds at
times at times after 14z. Winds will be variable to southerly
around 5 kts or less through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 22, 4:03 PM EST---------------
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