PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 4:23 PM CST293
FXUS63 KPAH 202223
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
423 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold today, another weak front early Tuesday requires another
Cold Weather Advisory for -5 to 0 degree apparent
temperatures..
- Dangerously cold temperatures continue through Tuesday.
- Temperatures moderate Wednesday through the end of the
forecast period. Rain chances increase this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
Climatologically this is the coldest week of the year in the
quad-state. That checks out looking at obs across the region.
Wind chills fell into the -5 to 2 F range overnight, with
temperatures struggling to break 20 despite abundant afternoon
sunshine as this airmass that crossed the North Pole from Russia
sits firmly square on the CWA this afternoon. A positively-
tilted longwave trough is approaching from the northwest and
will push through another weak cold front. Clouds from this
general activity may make the specifics of low temps a little
tricky tonight, but with dewpoints below zero, and areas still
with some snowpack it won't take much radiational cooling amid
light winds to drop and kept things at 10 or below everywhere.
The push of northwesterly winds will push apparent temperatures
down again into the -5 to 0 degree range. At or close enough to
cold weather advisory (wind chill advisory) level to go with
another one for all zones for the early to late morning hours of
Tuesday.
Once the upper trough axis passes through temperatures will
start to moderate amid light southerly flow with a surface ridge
axis to our east. It won't be warm exactly, but close to
seasonal norms. A shortwave trough passes through Thursday night
into Friday. Ironically the airmass behind the front that comes
through with this system is sitting over northern Alaska now -
where its a balmy 24 degrees - so the temperature/moisture
change will be minimal. There is some signal for a little bit of
light rain/snow flurries as this trough axis passes, and I
suspect we will squeeze a little something out, but column
moisture is too limited to ride with a measurable PoP at this
point.
By Sunday deeper layer warm advection and some ripples in the
jet help generate rain and showers over the area. The 12z GFS
deterministic guidance then pinches off a jet max as a shortwave
approaches in a way to create pretty unsettled conditions near
or just to our southeast for a couple of days into early next
week. The ECMWF strengthens the subtropical jet a little further
south and keeps that activity blocked well to our south over the
Gulf of Mexico. Will have to monitor it as the week progresses.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 420 PM CST Mon Jan 20 2025
A surface reflected trof/boundary will make passage late
tonight, drawing in some clouds and shifting winds tmrw morning
like a fropa. CIGS, as they occur, should remain VFR, but may
lower closer to restricted cats as model time/height cross
sections suggest its possibility with some sub H8 moisture
lowering.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for MOZ076-
086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM CST /2 AM EST/ to 3 PM CST /4
PM EST/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for
KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 4:23 PM CST---------------
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