ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 3:46 PM EST363
FXUS61 KILN 202046
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
346 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Bitterly cold conditions will persist through Wednesday,
with mainly dry conditions expected through midweek. Arctic
high pressure will build across the area tonight. A secondary
cold front will swing through on Tuesday reinforcing the cold
air, with the coldest temperatures expected on Tuesday night. A
slight warming trend is expected by the end of the workweek,
with more seasonable air filtering back into the Ohio Valley as
we head into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Amplified mid and upper level flow with a ridge over over the
west coast and a mean long wave trof over the eastern CONUS.
Embedded shortwave to dig southeast into the Great Lakes
overnight. Arctic airmass in the form of a ridge of high
pressure to build across the region this evening centered
east of the area overnight. A secondary cold front will work
into western Ohio by sunrise Tuesday.
In the dry airmass skies will start out mainly clear this
evening with an increase in mid level clouds overnight ahead of
the approaching cold front. Can not rule out the chance for a
few flurries late tonight into the southwest.
Lows tonight to generally range from zero to 5 above zero. West
winds will back southwest at 10 mph or less overnight. Due to
clouds and lighter winds - we are looking at a slightly
"warmer" setup tonight - with lowest wind chill values ranging
from (-10 to -15) north to (zero to -10) along and south of the
Ohio River.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The longwave trof entrenched across the eastern CONUS will dig
back into the Ohio Valley Tuesday, with much colder air set to
filter back into the region by Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.
The disturbance, given the very cold air already in place,
could provide enough forcing to generate a few snow showers or
flurries into Tuesday afternoon. The best threat will be
across parts of south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky where
a few tenths of an inch of snow cannot be ruled out. The cold
front moving across the area on Tuesday will make for a tricky
temperature forecast. Highs in across east central Indiana and
west central Ohio may not rebound much during the day (generally
staying in the single digits above zero). The southeast may
reach a high near 20 with all locations dropping off in the
second half of the afternoon in the wake of the front.
The coldest temperatures of this current stretch will occur
overnight Tuesday. Arctic surface high pressure will build
across the area overnight. Skies will clear out late in the day
into the early evening. Have trended overnight lows colder than
NBM with lows ranging from (-5 to -10) along and north of I-70
to (zero to -5) along and south of the Ohio River. Wind chills
look to bottom out (-10 to -20) north to the (-10 to -15) south.
The cold weather advisory remains in effect through 10AM
Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Wednesday, high pressure will move east while a weak cold front
enters the western Great Lakes and middle Mississippi Valley. Clouds
will increase from the west during the day. After a very cold start,
southerly flow will try to boost temperatures, but they will still
be much below normal. Highs will range from the mid teens north to
the lower 20s south.
For Wednesday night into Thursday, the weak cold front will move
east across our region. Upper level and low level support are
expected to remain weak, so only low chances for pcpn have been
placed in the forecast. After lows in the single digits and lower
teens, they will rise into the mid 20s north to the lower 30s south.
High pressure will return for Thursday night into Friday, returning
dry weather. Temperatures will still remain below normal. After lows
in the teens, highs will warm back into the mid 20s to the lower 30s
once again.
Models continue to struggle with the forecast for the upcoming
weekend into the first part of next week, partly due to a more
active southern stream butting up next to mid/upper level confluent
flow across the Great Lakes. This pattern will bring a chance of
rain and snow with temperatures moderating into the 30s and lower
40s for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions to continue today into Tuesday. Arctic airmass in
the form of a ridge of high pressure to build across the region
today thru the first part of tonight. In the dry airmass skies
are mainly clear - which will continue into this evening.
Mid level clouds will develop overnight (after 06Z) ahead of an
approaching cold front that swings thru the area on Tuesday.
VFR ceilings will develop at 4000-5000 feet Tuesday with the
chance for a few flurries or snow showers. A short window for
MVFR ceilings is possible mainly across the northern TAF sites
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the front before skies clear
out.
West winds at 10-12 kts are expected this afternoon with a few
gusts to 15-18 kts. Winds then back southwest at less than 10
kts overnight. The southwest winds will become more westerly
after the passage of the front on Tuesday and increase to 12-15
kts with gusts up to 25 kts.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs possible Thursday into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 20, 3:46 PM EST---------------
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