CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 21, 4:41 PM EST936
FXUS61 KCLE 212141
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
441 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move east across the area this evening
before arctic high pressure builds in tonight through Wednesday. A
weak low pressure and associated surface trough will move across the
region Thursday into Friday, moving another cold front east by
Friday morning. High pressure returns on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
This afternoon, snow showers continue to fall along and ahead of a
cold front extending from near Cleveland southwest towards Marion
OH. A trough aloft with an area of increased vorticity is enhancing
lift aloft as increased omega lift and frontogenetic forcing are at
work near the surface. In addition, ahead of the frontal boundary a
LLJ of 20-25 knots across the eastern CWA is enhancing lift and
mixing down to the surface to result in gusty wind up of 20-25 mph.
Given this atmospheric set-up, the snow squall parameter in the SPC
mesoanalysis increases east of I71 this evening. So far this is
primarily leading to locally heavy burst of snowfall with
visibilities dropping as low as 1SM. This may pose additional
hazards during the evening rush hour, but given the scattered nature
of the more intense snow showers, not expecting any widespread
impacts. Snowfall totals are expected to remain below 0.5", however
given gusty winds through sunset, some of this light, fluffy snow
may blow around.
As the upper level trough axis and associated cold front push east
of the area by late evening, an arctic high pressure will push east
over the area ending all precipitation. The exception to this will
be across northern Erie County PA where lingering lake effect snow
potential will persist into Wednesday morning. An additional 1-3" is
possible across this area. A more notable impact with this high
pressure system will be the plummeting temperatures this evening
through tonight. Arctic temperatures will surge across the area
which will be enhanced by radiational cooling due to lack of cloud
cover. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the -5 to -15F range
with wind chill values as low as -27F expected. These temperatures
and wind chill values will be dangerously cold, leading to quick
onset of frostbite on exposed skin and an increased potential of
burst pipes. Tonight will mark almost 3 days with temperatures below
20F, which increases the risk of additional damage to infrastructure
across the area. To highlight these potential impacts and the
extremely cold temperatures, an Extreme Cold Warning has been issued
from 7PM this evening through 10AM Wednesday. These sub-20F
temperatures will continue through Wednesday night with highs on
Wednesday climbing to 10-15F with overnight lows falling back into
the single digits for much of the area. Wind chill values through
this period will remain sub-zero.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While a broad trough will extend south to Texas and the Gulf Coast
heading into Thursday, a secondary trough moving through the
northern stream will cross the Great Lakes. At the surface weak low
pressure will cross Lake Huron and move towards Lake Ontario with
southerly flow and warm advection overhead on Thursday. High
temperatures recover back into the 20s with southwest winds of
10-15 mph. While the airmass will be very dry to start the day
on Thursday, isentropic ascent on the warm side of the system
will allow for a chance of snow showers spreading west to east
throughout the day. Deeper moisture fields generally only align
with low level moisture fields from late morning through mid
afternoon before upper levels dry out so pops are relatively low.
Low level convergence looks to continue downwind of Lake Erie
into Thursday evening and have scattered showers continuing.
Low level moisture appears to dry out after 10 PM so any
accumulations will be limited to the short duration of generally
only an inch or two over the higher terrain in NW Pennsylvania.
Ridging builds into the Ohio Valley on Friday with conditions drying
out. Partial clearing is expected Friday into Friday night. High
pressure and light winds will allow for continued cold on Friday
night with all but NW Ohio dropping into the single digits. NW Ohio
will be a few degrees warmer in the lower teens where winds will
maintain better mixing in the boundary layer.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level trough is quite broad to start the extended with
almost a quasi-zonal flow aloft on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
warm to the low 30s, ending the very cold stretch of sub freezing
values for most of the area. Another piece of northern stream energy
causes the trough to deepen across the Great Lakes Region heading
into early next week. Will need to monitor the interaction between
this trough and any southern stream energy that may move through the
Ohio Valley ahead of it. Temperatures are forecast to dip back into
the 20s with scattered lake effect snow showers. Ice coverage on
Lake Erie will be higher by that time which may effect moisture flux
coming off the lake.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A cold front extending from near Cleveland southwest to near
Findlay will continue to move east this afternoon. Along and
ahead of this boundary, snow showers will become more widespread
with visibilities as low as 1SM briefly possible. These snow
showers are expected to primarily impact terminals along and
east of I71 this afternoon before lake effect snow lingers
overnight for KERI. In addition, ahead of the boundary, expect
MVFR ceilings of 2-3kft before ceilings lift behind it and
eventually become clear overnight. By Wednesday morning, all
terminals should rebound to VFR conditions and persist through
the end of this TAF period.
Winds this afternoon will remain out of the W-SW at 12-15 knots
with gusts up to 20-25 knots for all terminals. These winds will
weaken near sunset to 5-10 knots with the exception of KERI
which is expected to remain elevated with gusts up to 20 knots
overnight. By late Wednesday morning, S-SW winds ramp up again
to be 12-15 knots for terminals along and west of I71 with gusts
up to 25 knots possible. For terminals east of this area,
including KCAK and KYNG, expect S winds of 10-12 knots. At KERI,
local enhancement due to downsloping is possible on Wednesday.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected tonight through early Thursday.
Non-VFR possible in scattered snow showers Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
West winds of 15 to 25 knots will continue on Lake Erie tonight,
becoming southwesterly at 15 to 25 knots on Wednesday. Lake
Erie is mostly ice covered west of Avon while a lot of open
water remains east of there. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
remains in effect through 4 AM due to the higher waves and
Arctic cold over the region. In addition, an Ice Advisory has
been issued for the central basin of Lake Erie off of Cuyahoga
and Lake Counties where rapid ice growth is expected overnight.
This region was selected due to the water temperatures being
near 1C or less while water temperatures are analyzed to be
slightly warmer east of this area. Temperatures are forecast to
drop into the single digits overnight off of Cleveland and this
may support rapid expansion of the ice into this area. Vessels
should take precautions to avoid enclosure in the ice.
A trough will cross Lake Erie on Thursday with winds shifting to
westerly during the afternoon and evening. Winds back to
southwesterly again Friday into Saturday with another weak trough
crossing Lake Erie on Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Arctic air persists through Wednesday. The coldest temperatures
are expected late tonight into early Wednesday morning with
forecast temperatures approaching record lows for 1/22. Below
are the current record low temperatures for 1/21-22.
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
01-21 -20(1984) -19(1985) -17(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -16(1985)
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
PAZ001>003.
Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for
LEZ166>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...KEC
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 21, 4:41 PM EST---------------
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