PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 17, 11:45 AM CST061
FXUS63 KPAH 171745
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One more day of warmer temperatures as highs climb into the
mid 40's to mid 50's.
- Rain moves through Friday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front
that may bring in the coldest air this winter behind it.
- Potential for multi-day exceptional cold with highs in the
teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to just above 10
to start the new work week, with wind chills as low as -5 to 5
early Monday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
Early morning WV imagery shows two areas of energy to our west,
one across the desert southwest and another across Saskatchewan
and Manitoba. Ultimately it will be this southern stream
disturbance that will bring rainfall to the region late tonight
and into early Saturday. Currently, skies are clear with
temperatures in the 20's to near 30 degrees. Patchy freezing fog
is possible early this morning especially in areas that still
have a snowpack. Highs today should warm into the 40's across
much of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana and low to mid
50's elsewhere. Rain will spread across the area late this
afternoon and through the night ahead of a cold front. This
front will move across the region early Saturday morning
bringing much colder air with it.
A trough axis moves into the plains Saturday night as surface
high pressure builds across the plains behind the departing cold
front. Some of the ensembles are showing light QPF signals associated
wtih this feature. Did increase slight chance PoPs for the
Kentucky Pennyrile. Temperatures will be cold enough for light
snow. Much colder air arrives for late this weekend and much of
next week with temperatures well below normal. Highs in the
teens to lower 20's and lows in the single digits and teens are
forecast. Wind chills Sunday through Tuesday morning will drop
into the -2 to 10 degree range with the coldest night being
Monday night when wind chills will drop to -5 to 5 degrees.
Persistent cyclonic flow aloft eventually gives way to ridging
by midweek with southerly flow returning. This will bring
moderating temperatures for late week with highs returning to
near the freezing mark by Wednesday and mid/upper 30's Thursday
into Friday. Models continue to advertise another system making
its way through the region for the late week and weekend,
although differ on track. For now the forecast remains dry.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
As surface high pressure retreats to the east, cirrus clouds
will thicken and lower tonight as a low pressure brings
widespread light to moderate rain to the region overnight
through Saturday morning. Cigs will fall to MVFR values and
eventually IFR at EVV, OWB, and MVN for a period in the predawn
hours. Vsbys will be mainly MVFR during the rain, which will
exit during the mid to late morning hours.
Steady S winds around 10 kts with gusts to around 20 kts at PAH
and CGI will continue through tonight. However, winds will
rapidly shift NW early Saturday morning as a cold front sweeps
through the region. Wind speeds will be 10-15 kts with gusts of
20-25 kts during the last few hours of the forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 17, 11:45 AM CST---------------
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