PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 17, 3:13 AM CST216
FXUS63 KPAH 170913
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
313 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- One more day of warmer temperatures as highs climb into the
mid 40's to mid 50's.
- Rain moves through Friday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front
that may bring in the coldest air this winter behind it.
- Potential for multi-day exceptional cold with highs in the
teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to just above 10
to start the new work week, with wind chills as low as -5 to 5
early Monday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025
Early morning WV imagery shows two areas of energy to our west,
one across the desert southwest and another across Saskatchewan
and Manitoba. Ultimately it will be this southern stream
disturbance that will bring rainfall to the region late tonight
and into early Saturday. Currently, skies are clear with
temperatures in the 20's to near 30 degrees. Patchy freezing fog
is possible early this morning especially in areas that still
have a snowpack. Highs today should warm into the 40's across
much of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana and low to mid
50's elsewhere. Rain will spread across the area late this
afternoon and through the night ahead of a cold front. This
front will move across the region early Saturday morning
bringing much colder air with it.
A trough axis moves into the plains Saturday night as surface
high pressure builds across the plains behind the departing cold
front. Some of the ensembles are showing light QPF signals associated
wtih this feature. Did increase slight chance PoPs for the
Kentucky Pennyrile. Temperatures will be cold enough for light
snow. Much colder air arrives for late this weekend and much of
next week with temperatures well below normal. Highs in the
teens to lower 20's and lows in the single digits and teens are
forecast. Wind chills Sunday through Tuesday morning will drop
into the -2 to 10 degree range with the coldest night being
Monday night when wind chills will drop to -5 to 5 degrees.
Persistent cyclonic flow aloft eventually gives way to ridging
by midweek with southerly flow returning. This will bring
moderating temperatures for late week with highs returning to
near the freezing mark by Wednesday and mid/upper 30's Thursday
into Friday. Models continue to advertise another system making
its way through the region for the late week and weekend,
although differ on track. For now the forecast remains dry.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
Guidance is trending toward no fog tonight, so removed all
mention from KMVN and KEVV. South winds will increase in the
morning and gusts 20-25kts will be possible in the afternoon and
evening. Rain will overspread the region in the evening, with
MVFR and eventually IFR conditions possible. Kept it MVFR for
now, as IFR is most likely into the overnight hours beyond this
forecast period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 17, 3:13 AM CST---------------
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