PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 16, 5:25 AM CST361
FXUS63 KPAH 161125
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
525 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer temperatures today and Friday.
- Rain moves through Friday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front
that may bring in the coldest air this winter behind it.
- Potential for multi-day exceptional cold with highs in the
teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to start the new
work week, with wind chills as low as -5 to 5 early Monday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
An upper level disturbance can be seen in WV imagery this
morning moving south out of the Midwest states. Mostly mid
level clouds are leading this which should push through the
region early this morning. Southwest flow at the surface should
result in warming temperatures through the morning hours.
Otherwise it remains quiet today and tonight as this system
pushes through the region. Highs will be warmer with mid 30's
across the north, and upper 40's to near 50 across the AR and TN
state line. Clouds start to increase from the southwest on
Friday ahead of the next weather system. Highs on Friday will
rise into the upper 40's to mid 50's. A southern stream
disturbance will lift out of the southern plains late Friday
into Friday night with associated surface low pressure. Rain
chances will increase late Friday and spread eastward before
ending Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will be around a
quarter to three tenths of an inch. Colder air will move in
behind this system and can't rule out brief flurries as the
system exits.
The rest of the weekend and into next week will bring much
colder air into the region. Deep troughing will encompass much
of the CONUS through this period with strong high pressure
moving out of Canada. Temperatures will fall to well below
normal with highs in the upper teens to lower 20's Sunday into
Tuesday. Low temperatures will drop into the single digits to
teens. The coldest wind chills look to occur Sunday night and
especially Monday night with values between minus 5 and five
above zero. Temperatures begin to warm by midweek as another
disturbance develops to the west increasing southerly winds
although still well below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
LLWS will continue for a few more hours this morning. Some mid
level clouds will stream across the terminals this morning
otherwise mostly clear skies are expected. Fog development
looks increasingly likely, especially across the northern sites.
Southwest winds 7-11 kts may gust up to 20 kts this afternoon.
Winds will subside overnight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 16, 5:25 AM CST---------------
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