ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 9:41 PM EST478
FXUS61 KILN 160241
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will provide cold and dry weather for the
Ohio Valley into tonight. By Thursday, a mid-level trough and
warm front will bring another chance of snow into early afternoon
before a warmer, wet system arrives Friday night into Saturday.
Sharply colder conditions are expected to return for the second
half of the weekend into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Clipper system will impact the Ohio Valley tonight. The low
pressure center remains well north of our CWA, all the way up
into Canada still. Regardless, the warm frontal boundary
associated with this system will traverse the region late
tonight into Thursday.
Mid level clouds already beginning to overspread the region
tonight ahead of the warm front. As a result of the increased
cloud coverage, our coldest temperatures are occurring this
evening. Temperatures will actually climb a few degrees warmer
overnight. As low levels continue to saturate, some snow will
begin to develop first in our west-central OH counties. Hi-res
models continue to come in slightly lower on snow totals, so
there could be a downtick in overall snow totals with this
system. However, note that some locations, especially near and
north of I-70, could have travel impacts with the morning
commute Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level shortwave to dig southeast across the Great Lakes
overnight into Thursday. A strengthening westerly low level jet
of 40-45 KTS provides favorable isentropic lift Thursday
morning. With cold air in place - snow to liquid ratio/s
support a snow of 1-2 inches across the north. The highest
totals look to occur over Central Ohio where some local higher
amounts are possible. Far southern Ohio and northern Kentucky
will generally see less than an inch.
Winds increase and gust out of the west in the 25-30 mph range,
which will promote blowing and drifting of snow. Will continue
to mention snow and wind in the HWO. High temperatures top out
in the lower and middle 30s.
This system shifts off to the east late in the afternoon with
surface high pressure building into the region Thursday night.
Although pcpn ends low clouds hold on overnight. Low
temperatures range from the upper teens to the lower 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level ridging will push east across the Ohio Valley through the
day on Friday. This will lead to dry and more seasonable
temperatures with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 30s north to
the lower 40s south.
A mid level short wave will move out of the lower Mississippi Valley
Friday night as a cold front approaches from the west. Southerly
flow and moisture advection ahead of this will lead to widespread
precipitation overspreading our area from the west Friday night and
continuing into Saturday morning before tapering off from the west
through the afternoon. Forecast soundings generally support mainly
rain with this system, although it will be tough to rule out some
snow mixing in early in the event, especially across our north. Good
CAA will develop behind the front through Saturday afternoon so pcpn
may briefly mix/change to snow before tapering off Saturday
afternoon. Highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 30s northwest to
the lower 40s southeast will occur ahead of the front with
temperatures beginning to fall off through the afternoon as the
front moves through.
Good CAA will continue Sunday into Monday as an anomalously strong
high pressure system settles in across the central CONUS. This will
lead to bitterly cold conditions through the second half of the long
term period with daytime highs Monday and Tuesday only in the single
digits to lower teens. Meanwhile, overnight lows in the zero to 10
below range will be likely through the first half of the week with
wind chill readings of 10 to 20 below possible at times.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Plume of mid level clouds overspreading the region from the west
early tonight. As the lower levels continue to saturate, MVFR
CIGs build back in by the early to mid morning hours on
Thursday. Shortly before CIG reductions occur, snow may begin to
fall across the terminals, moving in from the northwest.
KCVG/KLUK will observe less snowfall from this Clipper system.
KCMH/KLCK will likely observe the most snowfall (and over a
longer period of time). MVFR/IFR vsby reductions possible with
this snowfall.
Coverage in snow expected to weaken by Thursday afternoon. MVFR
CIGs expected to linger through the rest of Thursday and into
Thursday night. Additionally, wind gusts of 20-25 kts of out the
west will persist through most of the daytime hours Thursday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings likely with IFR ceilings possible Thursday
night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 9:41 PM EST---------------
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