PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 2:19 AM CST034
FXUS63 KPAH 150819
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
219 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures moderate through the week's end.
- Rain by Friday night, ahead of an arctic cold front with what
may be the coldest air this winter behind it.
- Potential for multi-day exceptional cold with highs in the
teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to start the new
work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025
Surface high pressure ridges across the Ohio Valley today
and into Appalachia by tonight. This synoptic shift yields
return flow southerlies, which help moderate temperatures closer
to seasonal norms by Friday; it's possible some warm advection
fog occurs late Thursday night into Friday morning...but it's a
little early to pinpoint. While this occurs, upper height falls
across the Mid-Upper Ohio Valley will be where pcpn occurs,
transitioning to rising heights here in the Lower Ohio Valley, heading
into Thursday, assisting the thermal moderation that ensues.
It's possible a few flurries are squeezed out in the transition
zone but it appears they'll stay just off to our north/east so
did not include their mention.
The next arctic cold front approaches Friday and makes passage
late Friday night into early Saturday. We've warmed enough by
then for a primarily liquid event, maybe ending on the backside
as either/or or change-over but the pcpn is effectively shutting
off by then so it's inconsequential. The big payload is the
exceptional cold it drops on top of all of us as we begin the
new week. The NAEFS ESAT keeps running 10 year Return Intervals
for 3 Standard Deviations from the norm temperatures. That
translates to single digit lows and highs in the teens to 20s to
begin the new work week...with minimum apparent temps
potentially reaching cold headline criteria. Regardless, it's in
line to potentially bring our coldest temperatures of the
winter.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025
Other than some mid level bases just south of KCGI, we'll be in
a dry column forecast with surface high pressure ridging across
the Ohio Valley today and sliding to the east into Appalachia
tonight. Winds will be light and variable, gradually developing
return flow southerlies upon the eastward shift of the ridge.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 2:19 AM CST---------------
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