BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 8:12 PM EST274
FXUS61 KBOX 130112
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
812 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will pass to our north later tonight into early
Monday, which will bring an increase in cloud cover to Southern
New England. However dry weather with briefly milder than normal
temperatures are expected through Monday. Temperatures will
then trend colder than normal Tuesday through Thursday, with
some moderation in temperatures by late next weekend. There is
potential for more unsettled weather by next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
810 PM Update:
No big changes this evening, temperatures continue to tumble
due to radiational cooling across the region. Opt'd to blend in
the ADJLAV which captured the current trends in falling
temperatures - which range from the upper teens in Fitchburg and
Martha'a Vineyard to the low 30s in and around Hartford. Clouds
are moving in from the west so, will likely see a slowing of
these falling temperatures over the next couple of hours.
Previous discussion below...
Key Messages:
* Increasing cloud cover late tonight, but dry weather
expected.
Details:
Overall a tranquil afternoon across Southern New England under
governing high pressure to our south. Starting to see ocean
effect cloud cover over Cape Cod decrease in areal coverage, but
the vast majority of Southern New England otherwise was seeing
full sun and temps well into the 30s with a few low 40s popping
up in the CT Valley. NW winds are slackening and will continue
to do so while becoming more of a light W/WSW wind late in the
day today.
Initially mostly clear skies late this afternoon will give way
to increasing mid and high level cloudiness coming in tonight.
This is in association with a stream of moisture associated with
a mid-level warm front, a feature which passes to our
northwest. Not expecting any lower cloud cover, let alone
precipitation, so will be a dry evening despite the passage of
the warm front. Expecting a rather quick fall in temps with
good radiational cooling for a few hours, then the cooling rate
should slow down or stop entirely as this layer of cloudiness
moves in. Opted for lows in the low- mid 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
130 PM Update:
Key Messages:
* Dry with slightly above average temperatures Monday.
* Turning colder and more blustery late Monday night.
Details:
Most of Southern New England will open Monday under a layer of
mid-level clouds, with temps a little slower to rise into the
morning. But we do expect decreasing cloud cover towards mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies. With a bit more sun later in the
day, modest WSW winds and 925 mb temps warming to around -2C or
so, we should see highs reach into the lower-40s to spot
mid-40s.
Monday however will likely be the mildest day of the workweek.
For Monday evening, we'll be seeing the arrival and passage of a
cold front which will herald the arrival of another period of
below normal temperatures for most of the workweek. Cold
front's passage should be a dry one, and while not hazardous,
its passage will be marked by falling temps and increasing WNW
breezes. Lows in the mid teens to lower to mid 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures for
the week ahead, trending warmer with potential unsettled
conditions into next weekend.
There is good decent agreement amongst the global ensembles this
week will feature mostly dry conditions. That said, there are signs
the pattern may change by next weekend.
Starting off, Tuesday an area of low pressure exits to the northeast
with an area of high pressure building in to the southwest. This set
up leads to a building pressure gradient and strengthening low-level
jet overnight into Wednesday. 850mb wind on Tuesday afternoon, which
is about the deepest we mix to, are 30 to 35 knots. But, the jet
does increase overnight to 40 and 50 knots, then quickly diminishes
Wednesday to 35 knots. One forecast challenge will be the mixing of
the boundary layer during the overnight hours, when the winds aloft
are the strongest. BUFKIT show a weak temperature inversion with the
mean momentum transfer of ~15, it is reasonable west/northwest gusts
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday range between 25 and 35 mph,
with localized high gusts... below advisory criteria. Good news, the
gusty winds are not expected to linger like last week as there is no
blocking downstream. Wednesday into Thursday the area of high
pressure will weaken and shift south and east. Some ensembles show a
weak low pressure system moving across the St. Lawrence River Valley
with a modest shortwave Thursday night. Not expecting much out of
this as PWATs are fairly low, less than 1/4th of an inch, but likely
increases the cloud cover. High pressure briefly returns on Friday,
then turning unsettled into the upcoming weekend as ensembles show a
low pressure system moving through as an inside runner, increasing
the southwesterly winds, and PWATs. There is still "pounds of time"
to watch this, but would favor rain with a mix possible in the high
terrain of northwest Massachusetts.
Mentioned above this is a mostly dry week. Global ensembles show a
donut hole for QPF this week, less than 10% the region sees more
than 0.01" of an inch, between Tuesday and Friday. Where this isn't
the case is the Berkshires and outer Cape/Islands. Here we will have
a few nuisance snow showers with the passage of that low pressure
system we discussed earlier. But at the end of the day, no impacts
from this.
Temperatures wise, the daytime highs and nightly lows are running
just below normal for mid-January. Daytime highs range from the
upper 20s to low 30s, nighttime lows are in the teens. Could have
slightly colder lows Wednesday night in the single digits to low
teens as winds ease and skies remain clear. Late in the week WAA
will bring more mild temperatures to the region, bouncing back to
the mid-30s on Friday and perhaps the mid/upper-40s on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight and Monday: High confidence.
VFR, increasing layer of mid-level clouds tonight. This layer
of clouds decreases in coverage by late Monday AM. Light WSW/W
tonight, less than 5 knots, reaching 10 knots Monday.
Monday Night: High confidence.
VFR. Passage of a cold front ~03-09z from W to E will bring a
windshift from WSW/SW 5 kt or less to W/NW and increasing to
8-12 kt, with gusts 20-25 kt.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Monday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Overall high confidence.
Small Craft Advisories that were in effect will be cancelled
shortly. Conditions will remain at below-SCA criteria thru Mon,
with WNW to WSW winds around 10-15 kt and seas 4 ft or less all
waters.
A cold front moves across the waters overnight Monday
evening/early Tue AM, which will bring a windshift to WNW with
speeds increasing to around 20-25 kt toward early Tue AM. At
least SCAs seem likely to be needed overnight Monday night. Seas
will also be building to around 4-6 ft.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of snow.
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Dooley
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Loconto/Dooley
MARINE...Loconto/Dooley
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 8:12 PM EST----------------
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