PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 4, 11:55 AM EDT020
FXUS61 KPBZ 041555
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1155 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from an isolated afternoon thunderstorm across the higher
terrain, dry conditions are expected today. Rain returns
Wednesday into Thursday with periodic rain chance thereafter.
Temperatures remain above average through much of the week, with
a cooling trend expected into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry weather continues today.
- Afternoon shower or storm possible in the higher elevations.
- Temperatures continue to trend up.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Upper ridging is centered over the region today, with minor
amplification in response to the deepening shortwave across the
upper Midwest. This should keep the area mainly dry today, but
low-level southeasterly flow may spawn a few orographically-
induced storms over the higher terrain of WV into PA this
afternoon. Weak flow will mean any storms that do flow are
likely to be slow-moving, so isolated heavy downpours will be
possible. Outflow boundaries from any storms may also expand
development farther west.
Plentiful sunshine and warm advection should boost temperatures
close to 10 degrees above normal this afternoon (mid/upper 80s
for most).
The eastern ridge will flatten and be forced eastward overnight
as a shortwave trough nears the Ohio Valley. CAMs continue to
indicate the potential for an initial wave of showers crossing
eastern Ohio into western PA during the pre-dawn hours, but more
organized convection is not expected until later Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday
with a crossing cold front.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The risk for showers and possibly a thunderstorm will increase
as the wave crosses the region. Seeing some differences in model
solutions on what happens once the wave exits and how fast the
next wave will arrive. This will be important for the risk for
showers and storms that may develop ahead of a cold front which
is slated for a Wednesday night passage.
The most focused period of convection looks to be Wednesday
evening and overnight. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
will contribute to increased sfc-based instability during the
afternoon/early evening. Latest CSU ML continues to support a
low-end severe weather (wind) threat, but potential will hinge
on timing of convection and arrival of the front. Additionally,
Wednesday cloud cover and the threat for activity well ahead of
the front will play a role as well. For now, SPC still has us
outlooked in a General Thunder only, but we will continue to
monitor.
A break in the activity is expected Thursday morning before a
second cold front crosses in the afternoon. This will return the
risk for showers and storms Thursday afternoon/evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Periodic showers with cooler conditions are expected into the
weekend with a slowly crossing upper-level low.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
An upper-level low will dig across the Great Lakes Friday and
into New England by Saturday. This will keep cooler and showery
conditions in the forecast as we head into the weekend. While
there is low confidence on pinpointing the best timing of these
showers each day, ensembles do agree on the general showery
pattern with upper troughing persisting through the weekend and
possibly into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shortwave ridging will maintain VFR conditions for most airports
today. The CU rule and model soundings indicate a scattered cu
field will develop later this morning into the afternoon, with
cirrus above. Wind should become SSE at around 5 kt. There could
be a few afternoon thunderstorms across the higher terrain of
WV as the ridge begins to shift eastward later today, though no
TAF sites should be affected.
.Outlook...
Restriction potential returns Wednesday and Wednesday night in
showers and possible thunderstorms with a crossing cold front.
Periodic restrictions are then possible Thursday through
Saturday as a slow moving upper low drifts across the Great
Lakes region.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley/22
SHORT TERM...Rackley/22
LONG TERM...Rackley/22
AVIATION...WM/Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 4, 11:55 AM EDT---------------
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