PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 1:22 PM CST727
FXUS63 KPAH 141922
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
122 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another cold night before a slow moderating trend through
Friday.
- Rain on Friday ahead of a very powerful cold front, with what
may be the coldest air this winter behind it.
- Potential for multi-day exceptional cold with highs in the 20s
and lows near zero Monday through Wednesday next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Another arctic cold front is working through the area. In the
meantime though across the southern half of the CWA westerly
winds seem to be providing a little downslope/advection based
warming as high temperatures overachieve a bit. The front will
march on however and it will be quite cold again tonight and
chilly tomorrow during the day. A bit of a warming trend works
in for Thursday and especially Friday as strong low level warm
advection develops ahead of the next storm system.
A relatively weak shortwave trough advances through the area
Friday while very strong ridging builds over the Pacific Coast
of the US/Canada and even into southern Alaska. This sets up mid
and lower level trajectories to hand us an airmass pretty much
straight off the North Pole. Rain is expected along the front
and the positioning of lift with moisture suggests for now that
the event will be all rain as the cold air will lag the precip
sufficiently.
However, doing a little backwards trajectory puts
that air headed this way at around 84 degrees North latitude.
The temperatures associated with it reflect such an origin. The
official forecast has highs 17-24 for Monday with lows in the
single digits. NAEFS anomalies put the airmass 2 to 3 standard
deviations below normal with a 10-year return period. If the
signal remains this anomalously strong, and it has for several
runs, the region will need to prepare for infrastructure-
straining cold for 2-3 days. The stronger winds on Sunday and
Monday may put us into cold weather headlines as well, depending
on exactly how things play out. The good news at this stage is
there is no real signals for precip during this cold period with
the closest storm system, on Tue-Wed, still well to our south.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Another front is moving in from the northwest which will shift
and increase winds through the day to moderate levels. A
scattered to broken cloud deck at 2500-3500 ft is possible along
and behind the front, mainly in the EVV/OWB area, but most sites
have a pretty good chance of staying VFR today.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 1:22 PM CST---------------
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